1 Institution Model Name CSIRO (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Australia), and BOM (Bureau of Meteorology, Australia) Beijing Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis National Center for Atmospheric Research Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per I Cambiamenti Climatici Centre National de Recherches Meteorologiques / Centre Europeen de Recherche et Formation Avancees en Calcul Scientifique Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization in collaboration with Queensland Climate Change Centre of Excellence Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory ACCESS1-0 length of ctrl run (yr) 500 bcc-csm1-1 500 CanESM2 996 CCSM4 CMCC-CMS 500 500 CNRM-CM5 850 CSIRO-Mk3-6-0 500 GFDL-ESM-2G GFDL-ESM-2M GISS-E2-R HadGEM2-CC HadGEM2-ES 500 500 550 241 584 inmcm4 IPSL-CM5A-MR MIROC-ESM 500 300 531 MPI-ESM-LR MRI-CGCM3 NorESM1-M NorESM1-ME 1000 500 501 251 NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies Met Office Hadley Centre (additional HadGEM2-ES realizations contributed by Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais) Institute for Numerical Mathematics Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute (The University of Tokyo), and National Institute for Environmental Studies Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Meteorological Research Institute Norwegian Climate Centre Table S1: CMIP5 model runs used in the study. From each model, the runs historical r1i1p1 and rcp45 r1i1p1 were used as well as the piControl r1i1p1 simulations. The length of the control simulations is given in the last column. 2 ACCESS1−0 bcc−csm1−1 CanESM2 CCSM4 CMCC−CMS CNRM−CM5 CSIRO−Mk3−6−0 GFDL−ESM2G GFDL−ESM2M GISS−E2−R HadGEM2−CC HadGEM2−ES inmcm4 IPSL−CM5A−MR MIROC−ESM MPI−ESM−LR MRI−CGCM3 NorESM1−M NorESM1−ME 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 standard deviation (mm) 80 90 Figure S1: Temporal standard deviation of sea surface height found in control simulations for all models used in this study. 3 ACCESS1−0 bcc−csm1−1 CanESM2 CCSM4 CMCC−CMS CNRM−CM5 CSIRO−Mk3−6−0 GFDL−ESM2G GFDL−ESM2M GISS−E2−R HadGEM2−CC HadGEM2−ES inmcm4 IPSL−CM5A−MR MIROC−ESM MPI−ESM−LR MRI−CGCM3 NorESM1−M NorESM1−ME 0 1 2 3 4 5 95th percentile (mm/yr) 6 7 Figure S2: 95th percentile of 20-yr running trends (mm/yr) in sea surface height computed from control simulations. 4 ACCESS1−0 bcc−csm1−1 CanESM2 CCSM4 CMCC−CMS CNRM−CM5 CSIRO−Mk3−6−0 GFDL−ESM2G GFDL−ESM2M GISS−E2−R HadGEM2−CC HadGEM2−ES inmcm4 IPSL−CM5A−MR MIROC−ESM MPI−ESM−LR MRI−CGCM3 NorESM1−M NorESM1−ME 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 time span (yrs) 80 90 100 Figure S3: Record length (in yrs) needed to detect a forced linear trend in sea surface height for time series starting in 1990 for all individual models. 5 % 80oN 50 40oN 30 0o 10 −10 o 40 S −30 o a) 80 S o o 120 W 60 W o 0 o −50 o 60 E 120 E % 80oN 40oN 0o 40oS 80oS b) 120oW 60oW 0o 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 60oE 120oE Figure S4: a) Change in background variability defined as the difference between the temporal standard deviation in the control and detrended RCP4.5 simulations. The multi-model mean of the percentage of the change with respect to the control simulations is shown. Blue/red color indicate a decrease/increase of background variability in the RCP4.5 simulations with respect to the control simulations. b) Uncertainty defined as the multi-model standard deviation of the difference shown in a). 6 yrs 100 90 80 a) 1950 b) 1970 70 60 50 40 30 20 c) 1990 d) 2010 10 Figure S5: Multi model mean of record length (in yrs) needed to detect a forced linear trend for time series starting in a) 1950, b) 1970, c) 1990 and d) 2010, respectively. Tagged regions are regions where not all models detect a forced trend that was distinct from internal variability. The adjusted multi-model mean global steric height is used as historical global steric height change. The black contour line presents the time span needed to detect a forced trend by 2014.
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