Market Review

5.Market Review
72
Economic Trends in Japan
* The economy was in a standstill state until last December
120
110
Economic Indicator: Synthetic economic indicator created by integrating
integrating a range of key
indicators sensitive to certain economic activities, including production
production and employment. There
are two indicators: DI and CI. DI shows the direction of change in the economy while CI
indicates the strength of economic fluctuations. Each indicator has three types of associated
indicators: leading, coincident and lagging indicators. Leading indicators show future trends.
The reference index CI was upgraded to the official index in April
April 2008.
Composite Index / Leading
Index (2005 = 100)
104.9
104.9
100
95.1
96.3
93.4
90
90.4
90.0
80
81.1
81.0
70.6
70.7
70
Jan.2000
Jan.2001
Source: Cabinet Office.
Prepared on March 15, 2013
Jan.2002
Jan.2003
Jan.2004
Jan.2005
Jan.2006
Jan.2007
Jan.2008
Jan.2009
Jan.2010
Jan.2011
Jan.2012
Dec.2012
*Comments by Tokyu REIM
This document is provided for informational purposes only and is not intended as an inducement or invitation to invest or trade in securities issued by TOKYU REIT.
73
Price Index
* The year-on-year decrease in the Corporate Services Price Index (CSPI) has been reduced.
(%)
(YoY Change)
9
* Residential rents follow the CPI, while office / retail rents follow the CSPI.
6
3
0
-3
-6
Corporate Services
Price Index (CSPI)
Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Corporate Goods
Price Index (CGPI)
-9
Jan.2000
Jan.2001
Jan.2002
Jan.2003
Jan.2004
Jan.2005
Source: Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, BOJ.
Prepared on March 15, 2013
Jan.2006
Jan.2007
Jan.2008
Jan.2009
Jan.2010
Jan.2011
Jan.2012
Jan.2013
*Comments by Tokyu REIM
This document is provided for informational purposes only and is not intended as an inducement or invitation to invest or trade in securities issued by TOKYU REIT.
74
Regional Economic Trends
* The economy was weak from October to December
調査
Jan.2013.1
2013 Survey
(2012年10月~12月)
(Oct.
– Dec. 2012)
Oct.
2012 Survey
2012.10
調査
(Jul.
–
Sep.
2012)
(2012年7月~9月)
Upward revision
上方修正
Unchanged
不変
Downward revision
下方修正
* Comparison of 11 regions
Source: Ministry of Finance.
Upward revision
1
Unchanged
2
Downward
revision
8
*Color coding on the map shows the direction of the economy, not the prefecture’s current economic status.
In general, the regional economy is “recently showing signs of bottoming out in some regions
although it was weak during the October – December period in 2012.”
(Ministry of Finance, Summary Report of Economic Conditions in Jurisdictions of Finance Bureaus in Japan, January 30, 2013)
Many regions reported downward revisions to their economic assessments with the fact that overseas
economies remained in a deceleration phase.
(Bank of Japan, Regional Economic Report, January 15, 2013)
*Comments and comparison by Tokyu REIM
Prepared on March 15, 2013
This document is provided for informational purposes only and is not intended as an inducement or invitation to invest or trade in securities issued by TOKYU REIT.
75
Unemployment Rate
* Unemployment rate shows a downward trend for the moment.
(%)
6.5
6.0
5.5
5.0
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
東京都
Tokyo
<Annual average>
全国
Nationwide
5.6
4.8
5.4
4.1
4.5
4.6
3.9
3.9
3.4
1997
4.3
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
<Quarterly average>
6.5
6.0
5.5
5.0
4.5
3.9
4.0
3.53.4
3.0
5.5
4.2
4.0
3.7
3.4
20
11年
12月
平
均
1~
20
12年
1~
3月
平
均
This document is provided for informational purposes only and is not intended as an inducement or invitation to invest or trade in securities issued by TOKYU REIT.
Jan.-Mar. Oct.-Dec.
2012 Average
Average
10~
3月
平
均
Jan.-Mar.
2011
Average
3月
平
均
Jan.-Mar.
2010
Average
1~
20
10年
1~
20
09年
Jan.-Mar.
2009
Average
3月
平
均
Jan.-Mar.
2008
Average
3月
平
均
1~
20
08年
1~
20
07年
Jan.-Mar.
2007
Average
3月
平
均
Jan.-Mar.
2006
Average
3月
平
均
1~
20
06年
Source: “Labor Force Survey” by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications.
Prepared on March 15, 2013
Jan.-Mar.
2005
Average
3月
平
均
1~
20
05年
1~
20
04年
Jan.-Mar.
2004
Average
3月
平
均
Jan.-Mar.
2003
Average
3月
平
均
1~
20
03年
1~
20
02年
1~
Jan.-Mar.
2002
Average
3月
平
均
Jan.-Mar.
2001
Average
3月
平
均
Jan.-Mar.
2000
Average
3月
平
均
1~
3月
平
均
Jan.-Mar.
1999
Average
20
01年
19
99年
1~
19
98年
1~
3月
平
均
Jan.-Mar.
1998
Average
3月
平
均
1~
5.4
4.9
Jan.-Mar.
1997
Average
19
97年
6.3
6.1
5.9
20
00年
(%)
76
*Comments by Tokyu REIM
Employment Trends in Japan (Job Openings)
Job to Application Ratio (Seasonally Adjusted)
* Tokyo improved to as high as 1.21x.
(x)
2.5
Nationwide
全国
東京都
全国
Tokyo
大阪府
東京都
Osaka
愛知県
大阪府
Aichi
愛知県
2.0
1.96
0.58
0.54
0.45
0.45
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.86
0.78
0.65
0.53
1.05
0.97
0.74
0.71
1.43
1.28
1.06
1.21
1.14
0.85
0.85
0.0
2001
1月 Jan.
2002
1月 Jan.
2003
1月 Jan.
2004
1月 2005
1月 2006
1月 2007
1月 2008
1月 2009
1月 2010
1月 2011
1月 2012
1月 2013
12013
Jan.
2001
2002
2003
2004
Jan.
2005
Jan.
2006
Jan.
2007
Jan.
2008
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
年2012
年2013
月
Jan.年
2002
Jan.年
2003
Jan.年
2004
Jan.年
2005
Jan.年
2006
Jan.年
2007
Jan.年
2008
Jan.年2009
2009
Jan.年2010
2010
Jan.年2011
2011
Jan.
2012
Jan.年
2001
Jan.
Active Job Openings / Job Applications in Tokyo
* The number of job openings is continuously increasing since 2010.
(Number of people)
350,000
Active
Job
有効求人数
Openings
300,000
250,000
有効求職者数
Job
Applications
321,749
285,292
243,598
225,948
274,360
227,677
235,334
200,000
150,000
187,380
176,168
166,853
100,000
Jan.
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Jan.
2007
Jan.
2008
Jan.
2009
Jan.
2010
Jan.
2011
Jan.
2012
Jan.
20012001
1月 Jan.
2002
1月 Jan.
2003
1月 Jan.
2004
1月 Jan.
2005
1月 Jan.
2006
1月 2007
1月 2008
1月 2009
1月 2010
1月 2011
1月 2012
1月 2013
1月
Jan.
2001
Jan. 年
2002
Jan.年
2003
Jan.年
2004
Jan.年
2005
Jan.年
2006
Jan.年
2007
Jan.年
2008
Jan.年
2009
Jan.年
2010
Jan.年
2011
Jan.年
2012
Jan.
2013
年
年2013
Source: “Employment Service” by the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare.
Prepared on March 15, 2013
*Comments by Tokyu REIM
This document is provided for informational purposes only and is not intended as an inducement or invitation to invest or trade in securities issued by TOKYU REIT.
77
Excess Population Inflow into
Three Major Metropolitan Areas (Population Inflow)
* Structural population concentration in the Tokyo Metropolitan Area continues.
(Number of people)
200,000
Tokyo
Osaka
Nagoya
150,000
100,000
2011
62,809
50,000
population
inflow
(Year)
0
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010 2011
-50,000
Source: Population Movement from Basic Resident Register, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications.
Prepared on March 15, 2013
*Comments by Tokyu REIM
This document is provided for informational purposes only and is not intended as an inducement or invitation to invest or trade in securities issued by TOKYU REIT.
78
Office Leasing Market Overview (1):
Vacancy Rate by Market
* While the nationwide vacancy rate is high, Tokyo’s rate is relatively low.
(%)
30
Dec.
2011年12月
2011
Dec.
2012年12月
2012
25
19.9
20
17.3 18.0
17.7
14.5
15
13.2
12.5
10.4 10.2 10.7
10
5
0
7.2 7.0
7.3 7.5
Shibuya
Sta. Tokyo’s
渋谷駅西南
主要5区
Southwest Central 5
Area
Wards
Tokyo’s
23区
東京
23 Wards
5.4
9.4
11.3
9.8
9.9
12.8
12.0
12.5
11.2
10.2
10.6
8.3
8.2
4.4
Yokohama
横浜市
Osaka
大阪市
Kyoto
京都市
Kobe
神戸市
Nagoya
名古屋市
Sapporo
札幌市
Sendai
仙台市
Kanazawa
金沢市
Hiroshima
広島市
Takamatsu
高松市
Fukuoka
福岡市
Source: CBRE K.K.
* Shibuya Station Southwest Area does not represent the entire Shibuya Ward, but specifically indicates the “Jinnan, Udagawa-cho, Dogenzaka area,” including Nampeidai-cho and
Sakuragaoka-cho.
*Comments by Tokyu REIM 79
Prepared on March 15, 2013
This document is provided for informational purposes only and is not intended as an inducement or invitation to invest or trade in securities issued by TOKYU REIT.
Office Leasing Market Overview (2): Vacancy Rate and Average Assumed
Closing Rent of Three Major Cities (A Grade Buildings)
* Closing rent has made a turnaround in Tokyo although vacancy rate increased.
Vacancy
(%)
Monthly Average Asking
Rents per Tsubo (¥)
Average Assumed Closing Rent
15
14
13
12
11
14.7
30,650
29,050
10
9
8
7
6
5
45,000
,
Vacancy Rate
5.1
4.7
14.5
40,000
29,800
30,000
8.7
8.8
18,500 18,700
22,400
22,450 22,200
18,900
25,000
20,000
4
3
2
1
0
35,000
10.5
15,000
3.4
10,000
1.8
10.12
11.12
Tokyo Central 5 Wards
A Grade
12.12
10.12
11.12
Osaka
A Grade
12.12
10.12
11.12
12.12
5,000
Nagoya
A Grade
Source: CBRE K.K.
*Comments by Tokyu REIM
Prepared on March 15, 2013
This document is provided for informational purposes only and is not intended as an inducement or invitation to invest or trade in securities issued by TOKYU REIT.
80
Office Leasing Market Overview (3):
Office Rent Revisions in Three Major Cities
* Rent revisions continued to decrease in all three cities, but the amount of decrease was reduced in Tokyo and Nagoya.
15.0%
Tokyo
東京
東京
大阪
Osaka
大阪
大阪
名古屋
Nagoya
名古屋
東京
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
-5.5%
-5.0%
-6.0%
-8.6%
-10.0%
-15.0%
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Source: CBRE K.K.
*Comments by Tokyu REIM
Prepared on March 15, 2013
This document is provided for informational purposes only and is not intended as an inducement or invitation to invest or trade in securities issued by TOKYU REIT.
81
Office Leasing Market Overview (4): Office Rent Index
* Existing contracted rent in the Tokyo Metropolitan Area is showing signs of bottoming out.
Year 2005=100
125
企業向けサービス価格指数の一品目)
のコス ト指数
Office Rent Index事務所賃貸(
(Corporate Services
Price Index)
120
(Nationwide)
( 全国)
(Tokyo Metropolitan
( 東京圏)Area)
115
(Osaka Metropolitan
( 大阪圏)Area)
(Nagoya Metropolitan
Area)
( 名古屋圏)
110
(Corporate Services
Price Index)
企業向けサービス価格指数
110.8
企業物価指数
(Corporate Goods
Price Index)
105
103.5
100
95.4
94.6
95
92.6
90
89.5
86.7
85
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2000.01
2001.01
2002.01
2003.01
2011.01
2013.01
2001
2002
2003 2004.01
2004 2005.01
2005 2006.01
2006 2007.01
2007 2008.01
2008 2009.01
2009 2010.01
2010
2011 2012.01
2012
2013
2000
Source: Prepared by Tokyu REIM based on information from the BOJ website.
* The Office Rent Index is calculated based on contracted rents, rather than newly asking rents.
Prepared on March 15, 2013
*Comments by Tokyu REIM
This document is provided for informational purposes only and is not intended as an inducement or invitation to invest or trade in securities issued by TOKYU REIT.
82
Office Leasing Market Overview (5):
Indexed Office Rent and Retail Rent Comparison
* Unlike office rents, the rents of retail market are less affected by economic fluctuations.
120
Year2005=100
115
110
105
100
94.8
94.6
95
Office Rent (Tokyo Metropolitan Area)
Retail Rent (Nationwide)
90
Jan.
Jan. 2001
2001 Jan.
Jan. 2002
2002 Jan.
Jan. 2003
2003 Jan.
Jan. 2004
2004 Jan.
Jan. 2005
2005 Jan.
Jan. 2006
2006 Jan.
Jan. 2007
2007 Jan.
Jan. 2008
2008 Jan.
Jan. 2009
2009 Jan.
Jan. 2010
2010 Jan.
Jan. 2011
2011 Jan.
Jan. 2012
2012 Jan.
Jan. 2013
2013
Jan. 2000
2000 Jan.
2000.01 2001.01 2002.01 2003.01 2004.01 2005.01 2006.01 2007.01 2008.01 2009.01 2010.01 2011.01 2012.01 2013.01
Source: Prepared by Tokyu REIM based on information from the BOJ website.
Prepared on March 15, 2013
*Comments by Tokyu REIM
This document is provided for informational purposes only and is not intended as an inducement or invitation to invest or trade in securities issued by TOKYU REIT.
83
Office Leasing Market Overview (6):
Business Sentiment
Business sentiments on
both vacancy and rent levels show an improving trend.
※景況感は空室率、賃料ともに改善傾向
Business Sentiment on Vacancy Levels in Tokyo (Now vs. 3 Months Later)
Occupancy and Asking Rents in 5 Central Wards of Tokyo
Average Office Asking Rents (¥/Month/Tsubo)
Occupancy (%)
100
60
千代田区
Chiyoda
中央区
Chuo
Minato
港区
Shinjuku
新宿区
渋谷区
Shibuya
20,000
23wards
23区
40
95
18,750
20
90
17,500
0
85
16,250
-20
80
15,000
-40
75
13,750
オフィス稼働率
Occupancy
オフィス平均募集賃料
Average
Office Asking Rents
-60
70
12,500
Jul.
Jul.
Jul.
Jul.
Jul.
Jul.
Jul.
Jul.
Jul.
Jul.
Jul.
Jul.
Jul.
Jul.
Jul.
Jul.
Jul. 7月
Jul. 7月
Jul. 7Jul.
Jul. 7月
Jul. 7月
Jul. 7月
Jul. 7月
Jul. 7月
Jul. 7月
Jul. 7月
Jul. 7月
Jul. 7月
Jul. 7月
Jul. 7Jul.
Jul. 7月
Jul. 7月
Jul. 7Jul.
Jul. 7Jul.
Jul. 7月
Jul. 月
月
月
月
月
月
71993
2002
3月 Mar.
2003
3月 2004
3月 2005
3月 Mar.
2006
3月 2007
3月 2008
3月 2009
3月 2010
3月 2011
3月 2012
3月 Dec. 2012
Mar.
2002
Mar.
2012
2003
Mar.
2004
Mar.
2005
2006
Mar.
2007
Mar.
2008
Mar.
2009
Mar.
2010
Mar.
2011
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Mar.年
2002
Mar.年
2012
Mar.年
2003
Mar.年
2004
Mar.年
2005
Mar.年
2006
Mar.年
2007
Mar.年
2008
Mar.年
2009
Mar.年
2010
Mar.年
2011
年10
2012
2006年 2006
2004年 2004
2003年 2003
2007年 2007
1997年 1997
2005年 2005
1998年 1998
2001年 2001
2000年 2000
2002年 2002
1994年 1994
1996年 1996
1995年 1995
1999年 1999
2012年
2009年 2009
1993年 1993
2010年 2010
2008年 2008
2011年 2011
2012 Oct.
Oct. Source: CBRE K..K.
Source: Tokyo Building Owners and Managers Association
2012
2012
Business Sentiment on Rent Levels in Tokyo (Now vs. 3 Months Later)
Rent Estimates (Rent Level at Survey Date = 100)
60
千代田区
Chiyoda
中央区
Chuo
港区
Minato
新宿区
Shinjuku
渋谷区
Shibuya
27th Period Survey (as of October 2012)
26th Period Survey (as of April 2012)
23区
23wards
Next
Year
2
Years
5
Years
10
Years
Area
Next
Year
2
Years
5
Years
10
Years
40
Area
20
Marunouchi, Otemachi
area
100
101
103
105
Marunouchi, Otemachi
area
100
102
105
105
Shibuya, Shibuya
Station area
100
100
102
103
Shibuya, Shibuya
Station area
100
100
102
103
Nagoya, Nagoya
Station area
98
99
100
100
Nagoya, Nagoya
Station area
99
99
100
100
Osaka, along Midousuji
line
98
98
100
100
Osaka, along Midousuji
line
98
98
100
100
Source: Japan Real Estate Institute.
Oct.
Oct.
2012
Source: Tokyo Building Owners and Managers Association
*Comments by Tokyu REIM
2012
This document is provided for informational purposes only and is not intended as an inducement or invitation to invest or trade in securities issued by TOKYU REIT.
Prepared on March 15, 2013
84
0
-20
-40
-60
Jul.
Jul.
Jul.
Jul.
Jul.
Jul.
Jul.
Jul.
Jul.
Jul.
Jul.
Jul.
Jul.
Jul.
Jul.
Jul.
Jul.
Jul.
Jul.
Jul.
7月Jul.
7月Jul.
7月Jul.
7月Jul.
7月Jul.
7月Jul.
7月Jul.
7月Jul. 10月
7月Jul.
7月Jul.
7月Jul.
7月Jul.
7月Jul.
7月Jul.
7月Jul.
7月Jul.
7月Jul.
7月Jul.
7月Jul.
7月Jul.
007年 2007
006年 2006
005年 2005
002年 2002
004年 2004
001年 2001
003年 2003
000年 2000
012年 2012
011年 2011
010年 2010
009年 2009
008年 2008
22005
22006
22004
22000
2
22001
22003
21999
2
2
1998年 1998
1999年 1999
22009
1996年 1996
1997年 1997
2
22008
1995年 1995
1993年 1993
1994年 1994
2002
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
2007
2010
2011
012年
22012
Office Building Inventory Overview (1): Three Major Cities
* New supply in the Tokyo Wards in 2013 will be around half of 2012 in volume.
Office Building Inventory in Three Major Cities
(10,000m2)
Office Building Inventory by Year Built (Tokyo Wards)
As of January 1, 2012
6,000
2,748
(buildings) (10,000m2)
Total floor area
床面積(万㎡)
(10,000m2)
Number
棟数(棟)of buildings
5,000
As of January 1, 2012
3,000 350
2,500 300
250
2,000
4,000
5,448
200
1,500
3,000
150
2,000
1,000
845
1,000
100
1,371
500
349
517
0
Tokyo
東京区部
Osaka
大阪
0
Nagoya
名古屋
50
0
1959以前
Through
1959
Office Building Inventory by Year Built (Osaka)
(10,000m2)
350
As of January 1, 2012
250
200
200
150
150
100
100
50
50
1969
1974
1979
1984
1989
1994
1999
2004
1979
1984
1989
1994
1999
2004
2009
2012
2014
201
(planned)
(planned)
(計画)
2013
(planned)
2009
2012
2014
(planned) (planned)
2013
(planned)
(計画)201
As of January 1, 2012
350
250
1964
1974
Office Building Inventory by Year Built (Nagoya)
300
0
1969
(10,000m2)
300
1959以前
Through
1959
1964
0
1959以前
Through
1959
1964
1969
1974
1979
1984
1989
1994
1999
2004
* Tokyo Wards represents the Tokyo Central 5 Wards plus other wards (Bunkyo, Taito, Sumida, Koto, Shinagawa, Meguro, Ota and Toshima wards).
* The survey covers office buildings with 5,000 square meters or more of total floor area.
* The graph indicates office buildings built in each year and still existed on the survey date. The total floor area does not necessarily correspond with the total office space actually found at that time in that particular year.
Source: Japan Real Estate Institute, The Annual Japanese Buildings Survey
*Comments by Tokyu
This document is provided for informational purposes only and is not intended as an inducement or invitation to invest or trade in securities issued by TOKYU REIT.
Prepared on March 15, 2013
2012
2014
2009 (planned)(計画)
(planned) 201
2013
(planned)
REIM 85
Office Building Inventory Overview (2): Tokyo
Office Building Inventory in Tokyo Wards (Statistics of Central Tokyo by Submarket)
* Approximately 30% of office building inventory was completed before
the present earthquake resistance standards were established.
Newly-Built and Demolished Office Buildings in Tokyo Wards (2009 – 2011)
* Tokyo has a considerable amount of new supply, but also has fairly
large volume of demolished buildings.
As of January 1, 2012
Nishi-Shinjuku
3.45 million m2
Kanda
1.91 million m2
Shinjuku
0.44 million m2
Kojimachi – Bancho
1.46 million m2
Otemachi –
Marunouchi –
Yurakucho 5.78
million m2
As of January 1, 2012
Kanda
Nishi-Shinjuku
Nihonbashi – Yaesu
– Kyobashi
2.63 million m2
Shinjuku
Kojimachi – Bancho
Hatchobori –
Kayabacho – Shinkawa
Akasaka – Aoyama –
Roppongi
4.07 million m2
Akasaka – Aoyama –
Roppongi
Hatchobori –
Kayabacho –
Shinkawa 0.96
million m2
Shibuya
1.17 million m2
Shibuya
Shimbashi – Toranomon
3.20 million m2
Based on total
floor area
Shiba – Mita –
Hamamatsucho
2.27 million m2
Nihonbashi – Yaesu –
Kyobashi
Otemachi –
Marunouchi –
Yurakucho
Shimbashi – Toranomon
Shiba – Mita –
Hamamatsucho
40 years or older
30 – 40 years
20 – 30 years
Konan –
Shibaura –
Kaigan 3.60
million m2
10 – 20 years
Konan –
Shibaura –
Kaigan
10,000 m2
Demolished (2009 – 2011)
Newly-built (2009 – 2011)
Less than 10 years
Age unknown
* The so-called new earthquake resistance standards were enforced as a result of revisions to the Building Standards Act in 1981.
* Tokyo Wards represents the Tokyo Central 5 Wards plus other wards (Bunkyo, Taito, Sumida, Koto, Shinagawa, Meguro, Ota and Toshima wards).
* The survey covers office buildings with 5,000m2 or more of total floor area.
Source: Japan Real Estate Institute, The Annual Japanese Buildings Survey.
*Comments by Tokyu REIM
Prepared on March 15, 2013
This document is provided for informational purposes only and is not intended as an inducement or invitation to invest or trade in securities issued by TOKYU REIT.
86
Retail Leasing Market Overview
* Consumer sentiment improved significantly due to change of regime.
Consumer Confidence Index
(Nationwide General Households / Seasonally Adjusted)
Economy Watchers Survey (Leading Indicator: Household Related)
60
50
Nationwide
55
45
全国
(Note)
南関東 (注)
Minamikanto
50
45
40
40
35
35
30
25
30
20
25
Mar.
Mar.
Mar.
Mar.
Mar.
Mar.
Mar.
Mar.
Mar.
Mar.
Mar.
Mar.
Mar.
2000
年3月 2001
年3月 2002
年3月 2003
年3月 2004
年3月 2005
年3月 2006
年3月 2007
年3月 2008
年3月 2009
年3月 2010
年3月 2011
年3月 2012
年3月 Jan.
Mar.
Mar.
Mar.
Mar.
Mar.
Mar.
Mar.
Mar.
Mar.
Mar.
Mar.
Mar.
Mar.
2000
2000
2001
2001
2002
2002
2003
2003
2004
2004
2005
2005
2006
2006
2007
2007
2008
2008
2009
2009
2010
2010
2011
2011
2012
2012
2013
15
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
2000
年10月2001Oct.
年10 月2002Oct.
年10月2003Oct.
年10月2004Oct.
年10月2005
年10月2006
年10 月2007
年10月2008
年10月2009
年10 月2010
年10 月2011
年10月2012
年10月
2000
2000
2001
2001
2002
2002
2003
2003
2004
2004
2005
2005
2006
2006
2007
2007
2008
2008
2009
2009
2010
2010
Source: Cabinet Office “Economy Watchers Survey.”
(Note) Minamikanto represents Tokyo, Kanagawa, Chiba and Saitama Prefectures.
Source: Cabinet Office “Consumer Confidence Survey.”
2011
2011
2012
2012
Jan.
Jan.
2013
2013
Department Store & Supermarket Sales (YoY Change) (Store Number-adjusted)
(%)
30.0
25.0
20.0
Department Stores
百貨店(全国)
(Nationwide)
Department Stores
百貨店(東京)
(Tokyo)
Department Stores
百貨店(横浜)
(Yokohama)
Supermarkets
スーパー(全国)
(Nationwide)
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
-5.0
-10.0
-15.0
-20.0
-25.0
Nov.
2003
Nov.
2003
2003.11
Nov.
2004
Nov.
2004
2004.11
Nov.
2005
Nov.
2005
2005.11
Nov.
2006
Nov.
2006
2006.11
Nov.
2007
Nov.
2007
2007.11
Nov.
2008
Nov.
2008
2008.11
Nov.
2009
Nov.
2009
2009.11
Nov.
Nov.2010
2010
2010.11
Source: Website of Japan Department Stores Association, Japan Chain Stores Association “Statistics on Sales of Chain Stores.”
Prepared on March 15, 2013
This document is provided for informational purposes only and is not intended as an inducement or invitation to invest or trade in securities issued by TOKYU REIT.
Nov.
Nov.2011
2011
2011.11
Dec.
Dec.2012
2012
2012.11
87
*Comments by Tokyu REIM
Real Estate Trading Market Overview (1)
* Efforts of related parties to further improve transparency of Japanese real estate market are required.
Real Estate Cap Rate, Long-Term Interest, Yield Gap
Real Estate Transparency Index (CY2012)
Although Japan showed improvement in two years since the
last survey, the transparency is still low compared to the
maturity level of its economy.
(Comments were prepared by Tokyu REIM based on the “Global Real Estate Transparency Index 2012” Report)
Changes in yield gap (1986 – 2010)
Source: Prepared by Tokyu REIM based on MU-CBex.
Ⓒ1998 Mitsubishi UFJ Trust and Banking Corp and CB Richard Ellis.
* The MUTB-CBRE real estate investment index was discontinued and eliminated with the publication in May 2011 of data for 2010.
Yield Gap
イールドギャップ
Transparency
Level
High
Transparency
Transparent
SemiTransparent
Low
CY 2012
Rank
CY 2010
Rank
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
13
23
25
29
32
35
38
39
41
46
48
49
50
53
55
68
6
3
1
9
4
2
8
13
4
20
18
16
25
26
33
45
48
57
39
42
54
41
49
55
44
65
76
Country
Name
United States
United Kingdom
Australia
Holland
New Zealand
Canada
France
Finland
Sw eden
Sw itzerland
Hong Kong
Singapore
Malaysia
Japan
Taiw an
China Tier 1 Cities
Philippines
Indonesia
Thailand
Korea
China Tier 2 Cities
India Tier 1 Cities
India Tier 2 Cities
India Tier 3 Cities
Macau
China Tier 3 Cities
Vietnam
CY 2012
Score
(Note 1)
(Note 1)
(Note 2)
(Note 2)
(Note 2)
(Note 1)
1.26
1.33
1.36
1.38
1.48
1.56
1.57
1.57
1.66
1.67
1.76
1.85
2.32
2.39
2.60
2.83
2.86
2.92
2.94
2.96
3.04
3.07
3.08
3.15
3.27
3.31
3.76
(%)
(%)
* The graph was prepared based on the Japanese Real Estate Investor Survey,
as the above graph can no longer be updated.
4.2%
3.4%
0.8%
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
12
.20
ct
11
.20
ct
10
.20
ct
09
.20
ct
08
.20
ct
07
.20
ct
06
.20
ct
05
.20
ct
04
.20
ct
1.0
0.0
-1.0
-2.0
-3.0
-4.0
-5.0
長期金利
Source: Japan Real Estate Institute, “Japanese Real Estate Investor Survey.”
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
O
Prepared on March 15, 2013
イールドギャップ
Changes in Yield不動産キャップレート
Gap (2003 – 2012)
03
.20
ct
China Tier 1 Cities: Shanghai, Beijing, China Tier 2 Cities: Chongqing, Tianjin, China Tier 3 Cities: Wuxi, Zhengzhou.
India Tier 1 Cities: Delhi, Mumbai, India Tier 2 Cities: Kolkata, Hyderabad, India Tier 3 Cities: Ahmedabad, Kochi.
1996年-2010年のイールドギャップ平均
Yield gap average (1996 – 2010)
1986年-1995年のイールドギャップ平均
Yield gap average (1986 – 1995)
O
(Note 1)
(Note 2)
Long-Term
長期金利 Interest Rate
7.0
+2.4%
-2.4%
6.0
5.0
4.0%
4.0
2.9%
3.0
2.0
1.1%
1.0
0.0
-1.0 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
-2.0
-3.0
* At around the time of the bubble period,
the yield gap was negative.
-4.0
-5.0
The survey addressed the following five attributes of real estate transparency: 1) “Performance Measurement,” 2)
“Market Fundamentals,” 3) “Governance of Listed Vehicles,” 4) “Regulatory and Legal” and 5) “Transaction Process.”
Source: Prepared by Tokyu REIM based on Jones Lang LaSalle’s “Global Real Estate Transparency Index
2010” Report and “Global Real Estate Transparency Index 2012” Report.
Real Estate Cap Rate
不動産キャップレート
(Single Fiscal (東京都区部の単年度インカム収益率)
Year Income Profit Ratio of Tokyo’s 23 Wards)
Yield gap average (2003 – 2012)
+2.7%
Yield Gap
イールドギャップ
Real Estate Cap Rate
不動産キャップレート
Long-Term Interest Rate
長期金利
(Market cap rate of class A buildings in Marunouchi/Otemachi district)
This document is provided for informational purposes only and is not intended as an inducement or invitation to invest or trade in securities issued by TOKYU REIT.
88
*Comments by Tokyu REIM
Real Estate Trading Market Overview (2):
Lending Attitude DI
* The lending attitude for the real estate sector bottomed out in March 2009 and began to relax.
Lending Attitude DI by Sector
<Long Term>
←
Lax
All Sectors
Lending Attitude DI by Size (Real Estate Sector)
Real Estate
Construction
100
80
80
60
60
40
40
20
20
0
0
-20
-20
-40
-40
-60
-60
→
-80
-80
-100
-100
Tight 1986
1990
1995
2005
2000
2010
2012
<Short Term>
1986
Total
1990
1995
Large
2000
Mid
2005
Small
2010 2012
<Short Term>
40
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
0
0
-10
-10
-20
-20
-30
-30
←
Lax
<Long Term>
100
→
Tight
-40
2003.3
2004.3
2005.3
2006.3
2007.3
2008.3
2009.3
2010.3
2011.3
2012.3
2012.12
Turned positive
-40
2000.3
* Large
* REITs not covered in the survey.
Source : BOJ “Tankan.”
Prepared on March 15, 2013
2001.3
2002.3
2003.3
2004.3
2005.3
2006.3
2007.3
2008.3
2009.3
2010.3
2011.3
2012.3 2012.12
・・・ Cap size over ¥1 billion
Mid
・・・ Cap size between ¥1 billion and ¥100 million
Small
・・・ Cap size between ¥100 million and ¥20 million
For data until 2003, size was based on the number of employees.
*Comments by Tokyu REIM
This document is provided for informational purposes only and is not intended as an inducement or invitation to invest or trade in securities issued by TOKYU REIT.
89
REIT Market Overview (1):
Capital Market Trends Since 2007
1/4/2007 = 100
150
140
TSE REIT Index
5/31/2007
TSE REIT Index hit a record high (3,047.85 points)
130
TOPIX
TOPIX Real Estate
Nikkei Stock Average
7/23/2007
Global downturn in stocks triggered by concerns
over the subprime issue surfacing in the U.S.
120
12/26/2012
Inauguration of the
second Abe cabinet
9/15/2008
Lehman Bros. filed for Chapter 11
110
100
10/9/2008
First bankruptcy in J-REITs
Civil Rehabilitation Act applied to
New City Residence
90
80
1/22/2009
The BOJ decided that
investment corporation
bonds, etc. of REITs are
eligible as collateral
70
9/5/2009
Set up of The Public - Private
Fund for stabilizing the real
estate market
10/5/2010
BOJ announced a comprehensive
monetary easing policy including
purchasing J-REITs
3/11/2011
Great East Japan
Earthquake
occurred
10/30/2012
BOJ announced an additional
monetary easing policy. BOJ’s
purchasing amount of J-REITs was
increased around 10 billion yen
4/26/2012
Kenedix Residential
Investment Corporation
listed successfully
IPO for the first time in four
and half years
60
50
40
30
20
1/4/2007
2007/1/4
Prepared on March 15, 2013
1/4/2008
2008/1/4
1/4/2009
2009/1/4
1/4/2010
2010/1/4
1/4/2011
2011/1/4
1/4/2012
2012/1/4
This document is provided for informational purposes only and is not intended as an inducement or invitation to invest or trade in securities issued by TOKYU REIT.
1/31/
2013
2013/1/4
90
REIT Market Overview (2):
TSE REIT Index Performance
* TSE REIT Index increased significantly during 2012.
TOPIX and TSE REIT Index Performance
TSE REIT Index Performance Relative to TOPIX
9/10/2003 (IPO of Tokyo REIT)=100%
150
2700
TSE
REIT Index
東証REIT指数
TSE
東証REIT指数
REIT Index
TOPIX
TOPIX
140
2500
130
120
2300
110
2100
100
90
1900
80
1/31/2004
1/31/2005
1/31/2006
1/31/2007
1/31/2008
1/31/2009
1/31/2010
1/31/2011
1/31/2012
1/31/2013
7/31/2004
7/31/2005
7/31/2006
7/31/2007
7/31/2008
7/31/2009
7/31/2010
7/31/2011
7/31/2012
TSE REIT Index Performance Relative to TSE Real Estate Index
1700
9/10/2003 (IPO of Tokyo REIT)=100%
120
1500
東証REIT指数
東証REIT指数
TSE
REIT Index
TSE 東証不動産指数
Real Estate Index
東証不動産指数
110
100
1300
90
80
1100
70
60
900
50
700
40
1/31/2004
1/31/2005
7/31/2004
1/31/2006
7/31/2005
Prepared on March 15, 2013
1/31/2007
7/31/2006
1/31/2008
7/31/2007
1/31/2009
7/31/2008
1/31/2010
7/31/2009
1/31/2011
7/31/2010
1/31/2012
7/31/2011
1/31/2013
1/31/2004
1/31/2005
1/31/2006
1/31/2007
1/31/2008
1/31/2009
1/31/2010
1/31/2011
1/31/2012
1/31/2013
7/31/2004
7/31/2005
7/31/2006
7/31/2007
7/31/2008
7/31/2009
7/31/2010
7/31/2011
7/31/2012
7/31/2012
This document is provided for informational purposes only and is not intended as an inducement or invitation to invest or trade in securities issued by TOKYU REIT.
91
*Comments by Tokyu REIM
REIT Market Overview (3):
Comparison with Other Countries
14.00
Major Interest Rates
Spread Over Risk Free Rate
12.00
(%)
12.0
* Wider yield gap (spread) than the US and Australia.
10.00
Dividend Yield of REITs
(Note 1)
Coupon on 10 Year Bond
8.00
Dividend Yield of Indices (Note 2)
10-Year JGB Yield
10年国債利廻(日本)
As of 1/31/2013
* Yield of Australian LPT
becomes higher as it doesn’t
conduct depreciation
(Japan)
10.0
10-Year Treasury
10年国債利廻(米国)
Yield (US)
Long-Term
長期プライムレート
Prime Rate
Short-Term
短期プライムレート
Prime Rate
8.0
198bps
6.00
5.42%
4.00
3.44%
145bps
1.98%
2.00
4.23%
120bps
396bps
4.72%
6.0
3.45%
270bps 4.0
129bps
2.15%
2.02%
2.0
0.75%
0.0
0.00
US
米国
Australia
オーストラリア
1/8/1988
Japan
日本
1/8/1991
1/8/1994
1/8/1997
1/8/2000
1/8/2003
1/8/2006
1/8/2009
2013/1/31
1/8/2012
Japan / US Yield Gap vs. Exchange Rate
(bps)
Japan / US
Yield Gap (%)
¥/$ Rate (¥)
1,800
1,700
1,600
1,500
1,400
1,300
1,200
1,100
1,000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
-100
-200
9/30/2003
170
豪10年国債とのスプレッド
Spread over Australian
160
GB 10Y
日本10年国債とのスプレッド
Spread over JGB 10Y
9/30/2004
9/30/2005
9/30/2006
9/30/2007
9/30/2008
9/30/2009
9/30/2010
Source: Bloomberg and S&P.
(Note 1) Based on S&P’s REIT index by country/region; weighted average basis.
(Note 2) US based on S&P500, Australia based on ASX All Ordinaries, Japan based on TOPIX.
Prepared on March 15, 2013
5.5
Exchange Rate
米国10年国債とのスプレッド
Spread over USGB 10Y
9/30/2011
9/30/2012
1/31/2013
Japan/US Yield Gap
日米為替レート
日米金利差
5.0
150
4.5
140
4.0
130
3.5
120
3.0
110
2.5
100
2.0
90
1.5
80
1.0
70
1/4/1988
0.5
1/4/1991
1/4/1994
1/4/1997
1/4/2000
1/4/2003
1/4/2006
1/4/2009
2013/1/31
1/4/2012
* Japan / US Yield Gap = 10-Year US Treasury Yield – 10-Year JGB Yield
*Comments by Tokyu REIM
This document is provided for informational purposes only and is not intended as an inducement or invitation to invest or trade in securities issued by TOKYU REIT.
92