Mr. Derrick Maple

IHS AEROSPACE DEFENSE & SECURITY (AD&S)
Presentation
PUBLIC PERCEPTION
Ground Robotics Market Analysis
AUTONOMY
4 December 2014
Derrick Maple, Principal Analyst, +44 (0)1834 814543, [email protected]
© 2014 IHS
NDIA PRESENTATION 4 DECEMBER 2014
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Ground Robotics Market Analysis / December 2014
Robotics progressing 520 years and counting
Leonardo
Da Vinci
humanoid
(1495)
© 2014 IHS
Future
developments &
applications within
the imagination
Space Station
Remote
Household
Manipulator
Walking
robots
System
robot
Programmable
First
robot arm
bionic
arm
Operational
Robot
UGVs
controlled
Automated
by AI
Autonomous
loom
First remote- machines
controlled
vehicle
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Ground Robotics Market Analysis / December 2014
Contents
Market Drivers
4
Near term market environment
Functional segments
5
6
Forecast Market
7
United States end-users
United States forces - planning
Global opportunities
8
9
10
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Developing Global Potential
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Research & Development capabilities
Current design capabilities
UGV capability growth examples:
- China and the Russian Federation
- Israel
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11
12
13
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Future Trends / Conclusions
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UGV trends
Autonomy
Conclusions
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14
15
16
17
18
19
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Ground Robotics Market Analysis / December 2014
Market Drivers
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Ground Robotics Market Analysis / December 2014
Near Term Market Environment
Unmanned Ground Vehicles (UGVs)
Over the last two years, major negative changes to the market:
In the USA:
 Draw down from Iraq and Afghanistan
 Defense funding constraints
 Changes in priority
 Programs cancelled
 Policy to reset / upgrade
Globally:
 Funding constraints
 Prioritization
 Slower than anticipated indigenous developments
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Ground Robotics Market Analysis / December 2014
Functional Segments
UGVs
• Intelligence surveillance and reconnaissance
• Mine & NBC detecting and counter-IED
• Inspection and intervention operations in hostile environments
• Hazardous material detection
• Explosive ordnance disposal
• Under-vehicle inspection and reconnaissance
• Special Weapons & Tactics (SWAT)
• Transportation across multiple terrain types
• Commercial applications developing
Source: IHS
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Ground Robotics Market Analysis / December 2014
Forecast Market
© 2014 IHS
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Ground Robotics Market Analysis / December 2014
United States End-Users
UGV Market
Source: IHS
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Ground Robotics Market Analysis / December 2014
United States Forces
UGV Planning
• Army plans to refurbish about 60 percent (1,477 UGVs) of total
• A bridge before eventual replacement
• MTRS Increment 2
• Tactical Unmanned Ground Vehicle (TUGV) program
• Common Robotic System (Individual) (CRS-I)
• Advanced Explosive Ordnance Disposal Robotic System (AEODRS) family
• Logistical support studies
Source: HIS
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Ground Robotics Market Analysis / December 2014
Global Opportunities
UGV Market
Source: IHS
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Ground Robotics Market Analysis / December 2014
Developing Global Potential
© 2014 IHS
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Ground Robotics Market Analysis / December 2014
Research & Development Capabilities
UGV Current Status
Source: IHS
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Ground Robotics Market Analysis / December 2014
Current Design Capabilities
Types of UGV by country
Source: IHS
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Ground Robotics Market Analysis / December 2014
UGV Capability Growth - examples
China & the Russian Federation
CHINA
 UGVs used for well over a decade
 Detection and Control Technology Institution of CASIC's Ninth Institute
 China North Industries Group Corporation (NORINCO Group) new Beijing facility
 Mountain Quadruped Bionic Mobile Platform
 Battle Robot
 Crew Task Support Unmanned Mobile Platform (CTSUMP)
 Institute of Automation of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing
 Four-legged Robot for Optimal Gait (FROG) technology demonstrator
 NORINCO proposing collaborative agreements with foreign research groups
 China North Vehicle Research Institute - China’s position “at least five years to catch up [compared to US]”
RUSSIAN FEDERATION
 Switching from acquisition to developing / producing indigenous unmanned systems
 Creating a road map for military robotics for the period up to 2030
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Ground Robotics Market Analysis / December 2014
UGV Capability Growth - examples
Israel
 A leading and growing presence in unmanned ground systems:
 Guardium and AvantGuard large UGVs
 Mini and Maxi-VIPeR (Versatile, Intelligent, Portable Robot)
 EL/M-2190 for military and commercial mine detection
 Keter Paz mini-tractor for bomb and mine disposal missions
 Hornet Mk 5 small tracked EOD Robot
 Eye-Drive an observation and surveillance, lightweight mini-UGV
 MTGR shoulder-carried UGV
 Continuing Middle-East tension is a catalyst for procurement and development
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Ground Robotics Market Analysis / December 2014
Future Trends / Conclusions
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Ground Robotics Market Analysis / December 2014
Future UGV Trends
Demand / supply
Drivers:
• UXV offer extended mission endurance / can operate within hostile environments
• UGV market largely conflict driven and dependent upon its nature
• Continuing / increasing threat from IEDs
• UGVs increasing their role as force enablers
• Global fleet replacement – but timing difficult to predict
Supply :
• USA retains key position
• But increasing global capability
Design:
• Effectiveness, efficiency, affordability, commonality, interoperability and integration
• Modular and easily re-configured for multiple missions
• Increasing automation
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Ground Robotics Market Analysis / December 2014
Autonomy
Increasing levels of automation
High Automation
• People always in the loop
AUTONOMY
None
THREATS
• Decisions are made by the commander - not by the system
Source: IHS
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Ground Robotics Market Analysis / December 2014
Conclusions
UGVs
• The US UGV market is currently in consolidation mode
• Over the next 10 years in the US, R&D outweighs production, reset/upgrade bridging
• The USA will continue to lead development and market direction
• Moving towards fewer, more modular designs
• Large potential global market for replacements
• Increasing applications for UGVs – military, dual-use and civil
• China and the Russian Federation developing their capabilities
• Israel one of the leading developers with extensive active use ongoing
• Levels of automation increasing
• Unit price reduction pressure
• Robotics progressing - 520 years and counting – the future is in the imagination
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Ground Robotics Market Analysis / December 2014
Questions?
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