Economics 315 Econometrics Fall 2014 Dr. Jim Vincent Office: 405 OEC Phone: 651-962-5689 e-mail: [email protected] web: personal.stthomas.edu/jwvincent University of St. Thomas SYLLABUS COURSE MATERIALS Required: Hill, R. Carter, William E Griffiths and Guay C. Lim, Principles of Econometrics, 4th ed., Wiley, 2011. In addition, I will occasionally be posting stuff on my web page. GRADING Grades will be based on two mid-term exams, a final exam, three graded problem sets and a final research paper. The weighting for the final course grade is as follows: Exams…………........20% each Problem sets.............5% each Research paper…....25% Class participation...5% ABOUT THIS COURSE Economics 315 is designed to give you a working knowledge of econometrics. Econometrics consists of statistical methods which have been adapted to the particular requirements of economic modeling, estimation and forecasting. In your studies of economics, this will be your fullest exposure to empirical (in contrast to theoretical) methods. In this class you will study the theoretical foundations of econometric techniques, and you will implement these methods using computer-based applications. This course does not require calculus or linear algebra, although these would be necessary for more advanced treatments of the subject. (If you are considering graduate study, see me or other econ. faculty right away.) It is assumed, however, that you have studied basic probability and statistics (e.g., STAT 220 at UST). I strongly recommend that you dig out your old statistics text (or find one in the library) and review the material on probability distributions, moments of distributions (mean, variance, covariance, etc.) and hypothesis testing. SCHEDULE Class meets: 0935 – 1040 MWF, 9.3.14 – 12.12.14 Office hours: 1445 – 1530 M 1100 – 1200 W and by appointment Office hours will not be used to obtain tutorial help for classes that were skipped. You are on your own for material missed due to an unexcused absence. Please feel free to call or e-mail me at any time for an appointment outside of the scheduled office hours. COURSE OUTLINE AND READINGS The following schedule is intended only to be indicative, so do not set your watches by it. It is principally an indicator of the ordering of the subjects. Significant adjustments may be made to this timetable after we see what progress we make through the material. Classes will be conducted with the presumption that you have read the appropriate chapters prior to class. I encourage you to ask questions in class. A note about this text: Econometrics texts vary substantially—some are encyclopedic, and some get to the main points and stick to them. This text is in between. It contains sufficient coverage for a two-semester sequence in econometrics. As such, we will cover roughly half of the book. It has sufficient coverage that it would serve as a good reference if you go on to work with econometrics beyond this course either professionally or in graduate school. Topic(s) Chapters With the exception of Chapter 1 you will be given a more detailed outline of what we will cover as that chapter approaches. A general introduction to econometrics and data 1 . Review of probability Probability Primer We will throw in some statistics as well The simple linear regression model There is a lot in this chapter—we will be in it for a few weeks 2 Statistical inference in regression models 3 Goodness of fit and modeling issues 4 The multiple regression model 5 More statistical inference 6 Dummy variables 7 Heteroskedasticity 8 Autocorrelation 9 Dummy dependent variable models 16 THE IN-CLASS EXPERIENCE We are scheduled to hold the class in the Economics Computer Lab, but often will not be using the computers. Sometimes we may be able to find an alternative classroom, sometimes not. When we use the computers, it will often not be for the entire class. Whenever we do not need the computers, they will be turned off. If this were only an individual thing, I would not make a big deal out of it, but there are externalities. (If you have not been introduced to externalities, go look the subject up in a micro text.) This behavior is very distracting to those who are trying to concentrate, thus the computers will be turned on only when pertinent to the class. The class experience will be much more valuable if you have read the material and are prepared to participate, answer questions, and solve problems. I know you have heard professors say this before (blah, blah, blah….), but it nonetheless is true. We will be working out problems during many class periods, so if you are clueless owing to lack of preparation, you will not be able to contribute or to benefit. EXAM SCHEDULE Exam 1 Exam 2 Final Oct 10 Nov 14 Final-exam week From the Enhancement Program Classroom accommodations will be provided for qualified students with documented disabilities. Students are invited to contact the Enhancement Program – Disability Services about accommodations for this course. Telephone appointments are available to students as needed. Appointments can be made by calling 651-962-6315 or 800-328-6819, extension 6315. You may also make an appointment in person in Murray Herrick, room 110. For further information, you can locate the Enhancement Program on the web at http://www.stthomas.edu/enhancementprog/. About the Instructor Jim. Vincent is Professor of Economics at the University of St. Thomas in St. Paul, Minnesota. He received a B.A. in Economics from the University of Montana and the M.S. and Ph.D. degrees in Economics from the University of Wisconsin-Madison. Dr. Vincent has also served on the faculty of the University of Colorado at Denver. He has served as a consultant to organizations such as the Colorado Office of Consumer Counsel, the Colorado Public Utilities Commission, the Colorado Division of Wildlife, the Montana Public Service Commission, the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency and U S West Communications. In this capacity he has also served as an expert witness in regulatory proceedings. He conducts academic research in the areas of energy and environmental economics. This research has produced published papers, professional reports, conference presentations and citations in the areas of energy pricing, environmental valuation and electric-utility systems.
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