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Power Systems Research Global Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI) (Class 3-8 Trucks & Bus Chassis)
BASE
Region
China
Emerging Markets
Europe
Japan & Korea
North America
South America
Global
Total Volume
2012 Q1
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
1,229,135
2012 Q2
2012 Q3
2012 Q4
2013 Q1
2013 Q2
2013 Q3
2013 Q4
2014 Q1
2014 Q2
2014 Q3
2014 Q4
2015 Q1
2015 Q2
2015 Q3
2015 Q4
141
109
105
113
118
137
123
117
136
112
122
110
155
120
115
100
114
116
76
84
92
93
93
84
93
95
111
98
109
112
106
110
108
99
105
109
107
102
109
119
116
126
147
110
107
96
112
108
104
100
117
113
106
102
120
115
109
104
122
118
86
76
80
85
86
81
85
85
99
96
88
88
103
100
92
115
118
122
128
146
152
158
139
147
156
162
143
151
160
167
113
105
103
100
104
115
110
105
114
110
112
110
130
115
112
1,390,845
1,285,627
1,266,638
1,232,985
1,282,319
1,407,860
1,346,148
1,291,164
1,405,145
1,355,287
1,376,449
1,348,165
1,597,704
1,417,741
1,373,087
Source: CV Link™
4th Quarter 2013 Power Systems Research Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI) climbs 1.8%
St. Paul, MN (Jan. 13, 2014)— The Power Systems Research Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI) increased from 110 to 112, or 1.8%, for the threemonth period ended Dec. 31, 2013 from the Base period of 1st Quarter 2012. The YoY (Q4 2012 - Q4 2013) gain for the PSR-TPI was the same, 110 to
112, or 1.8%.
The PSR-TPI measures truck production globally and across six regions: North America, China, Europe, South America, Japan & Korea and Emerging
Markets.
This data comes from CV Link™, the proprietary database maintained by Power Systems Research
As the global economy recovers from the recession, expect modest growth during the next few years as fleets continue to replace older vehicles. The
global trend of OEM’s expanding manufacturing operations outside of their “traditional” production regions will continue as the OEM’s strive to be global
players. Global vehicle platforms will also be a trend moving forward.
Also, expect a slowdown in China when the government begins to enforce the Euro IV emission regulations. North American production is currently at
replacement levels with modest expansion expected within the next two years. While European production is expected to improve somewhat through
2015, the market will still be below historical replacement levels. In South America, Chinese OEM’s plan to establish manufacturing in Brazil which in
turn, will drive regional production.
In North America, commercial vehicle production is expected to increase by 8.7% this year compared with 2013. Demand improved during the second
half of 2013 and order rates were strong toward the end of 2013. While the economic indicators continue to show mixed results, strength in the home
construction market and very tight capacity in the used truck market are two significant factors that are driving the order books.
Vehicle production in South Asia is likely to be flat through the end of 2015. However, commercial vehicle production in Japan and South Korea is
expected to improve by 2.2% this year over 2013. OEMs in both Japan and South Korea continue to shift production out of their home countries to
locations closer to their markets, a move that reduces the cost of production.
The next update of the Power Systems Research TPI will be in April 2014 and will reflect changes in the TPI during 1Q 2014. PSR
Power Systems Research has been tracking the production of engines and their use
around the world for nearly 40 years. We're the leading company in the world doing this
research and building these databases.
We have many of the largest companies in the world as our customers, including John
Deere and Caterpillar. They subscribe to our unique databases, and their facilities around
the world access our data and forecasts through the internet 24/7.
We're based in St. Paul, Minnesota, and we have offices and analysts located around the
world, from Brussels to Beijing and Tokyo to Brazil, to help us collect and analyze this
data.
For information on our products and services, call +1 651-905-8400 or email us at
[email protected] Learn more about Power Systems Research at www.powersys.com.
Power Systems Research Global Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI) (Class 3-8 Trucks & Bus Chassis)
All Regions
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
2012 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q4
China
2013 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4
Emerging Markets
Europe
2014 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4
Japan & Korea
North America
2015 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4
South America
Global
Expect a slowdown in China when the government begins to enforce the Euro IV emission regulations. North American production is currently at replacement levels with modest
expansion expected within the next two years. While European production is expected to improve somewhat through 2015, the market will still be below historical replacement
levels. In South America, Chinese OEM’s plan to establish manufacturing in Brazil which in turn, will drive regional production.
Global Index
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
2012 Q1
2012 Q2
2012 Q3
2012 Q4
2013 Q1
2013 Q2
2013 Q3
2013 Q4
Global
2014 Q1
2014 Q2
2014 Q3
2014 Q4
2015 Q1
2015 Q2
2015 Q3
2015 Q4
Linear (Global)
As the global economy recovers from the recession, expect modest growth during the next few years as fleets continue to replace older vehicles. The global trend of OEM’s
expanding manufacturing operations outside of their “traditional” production regions will continue as the OEM’s strive to be global players. Global vehicle platforms will also be a
trend moving forward.
Power Systems Research Global Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI) (Class 3-8 Trucks & Bus Chassis)
North America Index
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
2012 Q1
2012 Q2
2012 Q3
2012 Q4
2013 Q1
2013 Q2
2013 Q3
2013 Q4
North America
2014 Q1
2014 Q2
2014 Q3
2014 Q4
2015 Q1
2015 Q2
2015 Q3
2015 Q4
Linear (North America)
Commercial vehicle production is expected to increase by 8.7% this year compared with 2013. Demand improved during the second half of 2013 and order rates were strong
toward the end of 2013. While the economic indicators continue to show mixed results, strength in the home construction market and very tight capacity in the used truck market
are two significant factors that are driving the order books.
South America Index
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
2012 Q1
2012 Q2
2012 Q3
2012 Q4
2013 Q1
2013 Q2
2013 Q3
2013 Q4
South America
2014 Q1
2014 Q2
2014 Q3
2014 Q4
2015 Q1
2015 Q2
2015 Q3
2015 Q4
Linear (South America)
Overall, South American commercial vehicle production is expected to be positive in 2014. The forecast indicates that production will increase by 3.3% over 2013. After very strong
production growth in 2013, Brazilian production is expected to slow to a growth rate of 2.7% this year over last as demand and truck inventories back into balance as a result of the
Euro V emission regulations. During the next few years, a number of Chinese OEM’s plan to establish production in Brazil as opposed exporting trucks from China.
Power Systems Research Global Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI) (Class 3-8 Trucks & Bus Chassis)
China Index
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
2012 Q1
2012 Q2
2012 Q3
2012 Q4
2013 Q1
2013 Q2
2013 Q3
2013 Q4
China
2014 Q1
2014 Q2
2014 Q3
2014 Q4
2015 Q1
2015 Q2
2015 Q3
2015 Q4
Linear (China)
Euro IV emission regulations were implemented in July 2013. However, the Euro IV regulations have been seldom enforced. Currently, less than 10% of the engines being
installed actually meet the Euro IV requirements. This in turn, has driven up demand as the truck companies update their fleets to avoid the additional cost of Euro IV emission
technology. The lack of enforcement is likely due to the lack of lower sulfur fuel which is critical to operating the Euro IV compliant engines.
Japan & Korea Index
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
2012 Q1
2012 Q2
2012 Q3
2012 Q4
2013 Q1
2013 Q2
2013 Q3
2013 Q4
Japan & Korea
2014 Q1
2014 Q2
2014 Q3
2014 Q4
2015 Q1
2015 Q2
2015 Q3
2015 Q4
Linear (Japan & Korea)
Commercial vehicle production for Japan and South Korea is forecasted to improve by 2.2% this year over last. In 2014, Japanese production is expected to increase by 2.4%
while South Korean production is forecasted to finish .6% higher than last year. Japanese and South Korean OEM’s continue to transfer production out of their home countries to
locations closer to their markets. This trend not only lands the OEM’s closer to their export markets, but also reduces the cost of production.
Power Systems Research Global Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI) (Class 3-8 Trucks & Bus Chassis)
Europe Index
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
2012 Q1
2012 Q2
2012 Q3
2012 Q4
2013 Q1
2013 Q2
2013 Q3
2013 Q4
Europe
2014 Q1
2014 Q2
2014 Q3
2014 Q4
2015 Q1
2015 Q2
2015 Q3
2015 Q4
Linear (Europe)
After a modest truck buy ahead during the second half of 2013, production in Western Europe is expected to decline during the first quarter of 2013. To avoid the cost of Euro VI
emission techonology, a number of trucking companies updated their fleets ahead of the regulations which were implemented in January 2014.
Emerging Markets Index
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
2012 Q1
2012 Q2
2012 Q3
2012 Q4
2013 Q1
2013 Q2
2013 Q3
2013 Q4
Emerging Markets
2014 Q1
2014 Q2
2014 Q3
2014 Q4
2015 Q1
2015 Q2
2015 Q3
2015 Q4
Linear (Emerging Markets)
Medium and heavy commercial vehicle production in South Asia is expected to be flat during the forecast period. Overall, 2013 was a poor year with the flooding in Thailand and
the economic conditions in India. Expect the trend to continue through Q2 2014 before demand improves and production rates will increase.