PV Technology Development Revolution by Evolution Gaëtan Masson Vice-Chairman JRC Round Table on EU PV Industry Brussels 27 01 2015 PV Market 40 GW in 2014 (pvmarketalliance.com) 100 Bn EUR Some numbers 5% Commercial PV technologies Efficiencies will continue to increase 25 silicon siliciu m 15 thin films 10 Thin-film CdTe 5 Thin-film aSi/µcSi Thin-film aSi Year 2020 2018 2016 2014 2012 2010 2008 2006 2004 2002 0 2000 Efficiency (%) 20 Wafer silicon - high end mono Wafer silicon mainstream mono Wafer silicon mainstream multi Thin-film CIGS And more to come Wafer/thin-film hybrids, etc. 25 silicon siliciu m 15 thin films 10 Thin-film CdTe 5 Thin-film aSi/µcSi Thin-film aSi Year 2020 2018 2016 2014 2012 2010 2008 2006 2004 2002 0 2000 Efficiency (%) 20 Wafer silicon - high end mono Wafer silicon mainstream mono Wafer silicon mainstream multi Thin-film CIGS PV technologies Critical success factors (1) Economies of scale have largely been reached for mature technologies GW-scale factories are a reality already today Key drivers for further cost reduction are now: increase of efficiency & energy yield (incl. bifaciality) low materials consumption / low-cost materials PV technologies Critical success factors (2) Additional drivers / value-adding features: long lifetime / high reliability cost of capital ! overall sustainability optional: added functionality/ special features, e.g. shade tolerance, partial transparency, aesthetics, flexibility of size/shape, anti-fouling, etc. Total quality control and labeling (technical quality, environmental quality, CSR, etc.) may gain value in different markets PV technologies Market differentiation (1) Trend of increasing module efficiencies will continue for decades to come Toolbox of science and technology is well filled Europe is very well-positioned in most segments of research and innovation High module efficiency (at competitive cost) will be decisive for sustainable success in the main GW-scale markets: it is the levy for cost reduction at system and LCoE levels PV technologies Market differentiation (2) Added functionality/ special features will allow the development of new markets (incl. BIPV) The niches of yesterday may become the GWscale market segments of tomorrow The broader picture: € vs ¥ SOPHIA Symposium – 22 01 2015 – Chambéry, FR Thank you for your attention!
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