Diapositiva 1 - InvestorIdeas.com

February 2nd, 2015
Colombia, Equities
Earnings Estimates: 4Q 2014
Oil should drag down the entire market, while
mixed results are expected across the board
Market Alert:
4Q14 COLCAP Estimates
In this report we include 4Q 2014 earnings estimates for the 22
companies in our Colombia sample. On a consolidated level, we
expect negative 4Q14 results, including bottom line and EBITDA y/y
contractions of 28.9% and 10.0% (COP terms), respectively. Oil &
Gas will be the protagonist this quarter, as revenue generation will
be seriously hit by lower oil prices (BRENT: -29.6% y/y).
•
Oil & Gas is expected to drag down our entire sample, as
lower oil prices will explain a 24.5% y/y contraction in revenues
for the sector. Further, as E&P cash costs remain around USD
30/barrel, operational gearing will cause significant margin
compressions. Ecopetrol’s mid and downstream units will prove
helpful in mitigating the impact on EBITDA, relative to pure E&P
players; however, after the strong depreciation of the COP,
USD-denominated debt should bring relevant FX losses.
•
Utilities are expected to post mixed results, as ISA will suffer
FX losses on foreign debt, and Celsia’s bottom line, in an
otherwise positive quarter, will fall y/y in absence of the
extraordinary income (reversal of tax provisions) of 4Q13.
ISAGEN will stand out as the sector winner with HidroSogamoso
starting to contribute to consolidated figures.
•
Banks will grow led by Aval (both the HoldCo and Bogotá, its
main investment) as we expect the relatively higher exposure to
Central America and the moderation of the effective tax rate to
have weighed favorably in 4Q14 results.
•
Operating figures in Cemargos will benefit from positive results
in the US, along with growing volumes in Colombia. Bottom line
is expected to grow for the whole cement & construction sector
as CLH will not post the non-recurring losses of 4Q13.
Colombia – Quarterly Corporate Earnings Growth (COP - % y/y)
60%
CREDICORP CAPITAL EQUITY RESEARCH
50%
40%
24%
19%
20%
0%
-20%
-40%
-4%
-9%
-18%
-6%
-17%
-9%
César Cuervo, CFA & Team
[email protected]
+(571) 339 4400 Ext. 1012
-4%
-24%
-29%
1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14E
This report is property of IM Trust S.A. and/or Credicorp Capital Colombia S.A. Sociedad Comisionista de Bolsa and/or Credicorp Capital Perú S.A.A. and/or its subsidiaries (hereinafter jointly referred to as
“Credicorp Capital”), therefore, no part of this the material or its content, nor any copy of it, may be altered in any way, transmitted, copied or distributed to any third party without prior and express written
consent of Credicorp Capital. In making this report, Credicorp Capital has relied on public information. Credicorp Capital has not verified the truthfulness, completeness or accuracy of the information accessed,
nor has audited the information in any way. Accordingly, this report does not constitute a statement, assertion or guarantee (express or implied) as to the truth, accuracy or completeness of the information
contained herein or any other written or oral information furnished to any person and/or their advisors.
Colombia - 4Q14 Estimates
Company
Currency*
Revenues
EBITDA
(Million)
4Q14E
4Q13
Banks**
COP mn
8,856,922
Bancolombia
COP mn
2,455,133
Banco de Bogotá
COP mn
Davivienda
Grupo Aval
EBITDA Mg.
Net Income
% Chg.
4Q14E
4Q13
% Chg.
4Q14E
4Q13
7,843,035
12.9%
na
na
na 1,570,807 1,432,288
2,131,354
15.2%
na
na
na
475,625
488,740
2,066,953
1,809,290
14.2%
na
na
na
390,478
322,401
COP mn
1,233,924
1,126,891
9.5%
na
na
na
217,750
COP mn
3,100,913
2,775,500
11.7%
na
na
na
486,954
Cement & Construction COP mn
2,568,402
2,191,916
17.2%
667,650
535,411
24.7%
Cemargos
COP mn
1,596,973
1,307,351
22.2%
353,051
232,614
CLH
USD mn
447
462
-3.3%
145
158
Conglomerates
COP mn
2,659,422
2,206,254
20.5%
537,239
427,823
Corficolombiana
COP mn
na
na
na
na
na
na
Grupo Argos
COP mn
2,366,690
1,984,056
19.3%
537,239
427,823
25.6%
Grupo Sura
COP mn
292,731
222,198
31.7%
na
na
na
Financials (non-banks)
COP mn
19,407
19,560
-0.8%
6,921
6,693
3.4%
Net Mg.
4Q14E
4Q13
Approx. Report
Date
% Chg.
4Q14E
4Q13
9.7%
na
na
17.7%
18.3%
-2.7%
na
na
19.4%
22.9%
March 20th
21.1%
na
na
18.9%
17.8%
End of March
258,747
-15.8%
na
na
17.6%
23.0% 2nd Week of March
362,400
34.4%
na
na
15.7%
13.1%
247,730
104,835
136.3%
26.0%
24.4%
9.6%
4.8%
51.8%
103,417
54,792
88.7%
22.1%
17.8%
6.5%
4.2%
February 25th
-8.6%
66
26
153.8%
32.4%
34.2%
14.9%
5.7%
February 4th
25.6%
369,078
323,084
14.2%
20.2%
19.4%
13.9%
14.6%
11,131
32,035
-65.3%
na
na
na
na
End of March
110,160
102,902
7.1%
22.7%
21.6%
4.7%
5.2%
February 26th
247,787
188,147
31.7%
na
na
84.6%
84.7%
February 26th
6,459
5,879
9.9%
35.7%
34.2%
33.3%
30.1%
End of March
BVC
COP mn
19,407
19,560
-0.8%
6,921
6,693
3.4%
6,459
5,879
9.9%
35.7%
34.2%
33.3%
30.1%
Food & Beverages
COP mn
1,623,283
1,796,994
-9.7%
232,462
257,673
-9.8%
72,291
100,080
-27.8%
14.3%
14.3%
4.5%
5.6%
Nutresa
COP mn
1,623,283
1,796,994
-9.7%
232,462
257,673
-9.8%
72,291
100,080
-27.8%
14.3%
14.3%
4.5%
5.6%
Fuel Distribution
COP mn
3,569,826
na
na
66,608
nm
nm
5,273
nm
nm
1.9%
nm
0.1%
nm
5,273
nm
nm
1.9%
nm
0.1%
nm
899,337 2,715,092
-66.9%
30.8%
30.4%
5.9%
13.3%
-10
nm
48.2%
43.3%
7.4%
-24.1% February 13th - 16th
1,081,600 2,426,505
-55.4%
29.5%
27.3%
8.0%
13.5%
nm
39.9%
54.6%
-10.7%
Terpel***
COP mn
3,569,826
nm
nm
66,608
nm
nm
Oil & Gas
USD mn
15,357,217
20,343,570
-24.5%
4,723,198
6,193,661
-23.7%
Canacol
USD mn
37
43
-13.4%
18
19
-3.6%
Ecopetrol
COP mn
13,517,204
17,960,229
-24.7%
3,982,403
4,901,448
-18.8%
3
Pacific Rubiales
USD mn
809
1,203
-32.7%
323
657
-50.8%
-87
161
Retail
COP mn
3,246,939
3,069,885
5.8%
350,669
340,786
2.9%
194,225
181,845
6.8%
10.8%
11.1%
6.0%
5.9%
Éxito
COP mn
3,246,939
3,069,885
5.8%
350,669
340,786
2.9%
194,225
181,845
6.8%
10.8%
11.1%
6.0%
5.9%
Telecom & IT
COP mn
332,191
355,510
-6.6%
123,883
173,924
-28.8%
18,737
105,466
-82.2%
37.3%
48.9%
5.6%
29.7%
February 23rd
February 23rd
Mid-March
February 25th
13.4% 1st week of March
ETB
COP mn
332,191
355,510
-6.6%
123,883
173,924
-28.8%
18,737
105,466
-82.2%
37.3%
48.9%
5.6%
29.7%
Transport
COP mn
2,640,985
2,303,481
14.7%
541,239
468,732
15.5%
169,545
139,663
21.4%
20.5%
20.3%
6.4%
6.1%
2H March
March 24th
Avianca***
USD mn
1,215
1,204
0.9%
249
245
1.6%
78
73
6.8%
20.5%
20.3%
6.4%
Utilities
COP mn
3,052,665
2,612,888
16.8%
1,391,901
1,200,854
15.9%
355,197
390,971
-9.1%
45.6%
46.0%
11.6%
15.0%
Celsia
COP mn
782,788
626,923
24.9%
276,308
213,280
29.6%
155,396
168,285
-7.7%
35.3%
34.0%
19.9%
26.8%
ISA
COP mn
971,302
964,157
0.7%
533,182
524,272
1.7%
86,053
105,740
-18.6%
54.9%
54.4%
8.9%
11.0%
March 4th
Isagen
COP mn
682,504
514,394
32.7%
240,973
179,076
34.6%
153,165
119,544
28.1%
35.3%
34.8%
22.4%
23.2%
March 2nd
20.1%
-39,416
-2,598
nm
55.4%
56.0%
-6.4%
-0.5%
March 11th
-10.0% 3,908,680 5,499,204
-28.9%
19.7%
22.5%
8.9%
12.9%
EEB
COP mn
616,071
507,414
21.4%
341,438
284,226
Total Sample*
COP mn
43,927,259
42,743,093
2.8%
8,641,771
9,605,556
6.1% 1st week of March
February 19th
* USD converted to COP at 2,173.7 (4Q14) & 1,913.2 (4Q13); average exchange rate for the
period
** Banking revenues consider net operating income
*** Organización Terpel is the result of a multi-company merger that took place in August
2014; no 4Q13 figures available
**** AVIANCA considers EBITDAR estimates
2
Important Disclosures
This report is property of IM Trust S.A. and/or Credicorp Capital Colombia S.A. Sociedad Comisionista de Bolsa and/or Credicorp
Capital Perú S.A.A. and/or its subsidiaries (hereinafter jointly referred to as “Credicorp Capital”), therefore, no part of this the material
or its content, nor any copy of it, may be altered in any way, transmitted, copied or distributed to any third party without prior and
express written consent of Credicorp Capital.
In making this report, Credicorp Capital has relied on public information. Credicorp Capital has not verified the truthfulness,
completeness or accuracy of the information accessed, nor has audited the information in any way. Accordingly, this report does not
constitute a statement, assertion or guarantee (express or implied) as to the truth, accuracy or completeness of the information
contained herein or any other written or oral information furnished to any person and/or their advisors.
Unless otherwise stated, the information used in this report is not confidential, nor constitutes privileged information that may mean
the violation of the rules of the stock market, or that could mean failure to comply with copyright legislation.
This report is not intended and shall not be understood in any way as to: a) predict the future or guarantee a specific financial result;
b) ensure the fulfillment of the scenarios described in it; c) be an investment advice or opinion that could be considered as Credicorp
Capital recommendations.
The information contained in this report is only for referential purposes. While reading it, you should consider that the information
contained in this report may be oriented to a specific segment of clients or investors, with a certain risk profile that may not be yours.
Unless otherwise stated, this report does not contain investment recommendations or other suggestions that may be understood to
be given under the stock market intermediaries’ special duty to clients classified as investors. When recommendations are made, the
report will clearly specify the investors risk profile to which the recommendation is intended. Credicorp Capital can seek and/or
conduct business with companies that are mentioned in the report, and they can also execute buying and selling transactions of
shares that are mentioned.
It is important to state that the fluctuation in exchange rates can have adverse effects on investments values.
It is client responsibility to determine how to use the information contained in this report. Hence, the client is the sole responsible for
investment decisions or any other operation he/she might perform in the stock market based on this report. In other words, the
investment or operation result made by the client using the information contained in this report is of her/his sole responsibility.
Credicorp Capital does not assume any responsibility, obligation or duty for any action or omission derived from the use of this
document.
Credicorp Capital recommends to their clients to ask for professional advice from financial, legal, accounting, tax experts before
adopting an investment decision. Under no circumstances the information contained in this report may be considered as a financial,
legal, accounting or taxation opinion, neither as a recommendation or investment advice.
Rating System
Rating
Buy
Definition
Expected returns of 5 percentage points or more in excess over
the expected return of the local index, over the next 12-18
months.
N° of Companies
covered with this
rating
Companies covered
with this rating (%)
35
43%
Hold
Expected returns of +/- 5% in excess/below the expected return
of the local index over the next 12-18 months.
36
44%
Underperform
Expected to underperform the local index by 5 percentage
points or more over the next 12-18 months.
9
11%
Under Review /
Restricted
Company coverage is under review or restricted.
2
3%
82
100%
Total
3
CONTACT LIST
ANDEAN RESEARCH TEAM
SALES & TRADING
Heinrich Lessau
Hugo Horta
Director of Research
[email protected]
Director of Sales & Trading
[email protected]
EQUITY RESEARCH
EQUITY SALES & TRADING
CHILE
COLOMBIA
PERU
Hernán Arellano
Francisca Manuschevich
César Cuervo
Héctor Collantes
Head of Equities
[email protected]
Head of Equity Research
[email protected]
# (562) 2446 1798
Head of North Andean Equity Research
[email protected]
# (571) 339 4400 Ext 1012
Head of Equity Research
[email protected]
# (511) 205 9190 Ext 33052
Javier Günther
Marilyn Macdonald
Cristián Castillo
Christopher DiSalvatore
Jaime Pedroza
Fernando Pereda
Associate: Retail & Financials
[email protected]
# (562) 2446 1724
Senior Analyst: Utilities
[email protected]
# (571) 339 4400 Ext 1025
Senior Analyst: Cement & Utilities
[email protected]
# (511) 205 9190 Ext 37856
International Equity Sales
[email protected]
# (562) 2450 1695
International Equity Sales
[email protected]
# (4477) 7151 5855
International Sales Trader
[email protected]
# (786) 999 1633
CHILE
PERU
COLOMBIA
Arturo Prado
Juan C. Domínguez
Iván Bogarín
René Ossa
Rodrigo Zavala
Juan A. Jiménez
Senior Analyst: Natural Resources
[email protected]
# (562) 2450 1688
Senior Analyst: Banks
[email protected]
# (571) 339 4400 Ext 1026
Senior Analyst: Retail & Others
[email protected]
# (511) 416 3333 Ext 33055
International Equity Sales
[email protected]
# (562) 2651 9324
Head of Equity - Peru
[email protected]
# (511) 313 2918 Ext 36044
Head of International Equity Sales
[email protected]
# (571) 339 4400 Ext 1701
Andrés Ossa
Sebastián Gallego
Tamara Vasquez
Christian Munchmeyer
Ursula Mitterhofer
Santiago Castro
Analyst: Utilities, Telecom & I.T.
[email protected]
# (562) 2651 9332
Analyst: Oil & Gas
[email protected]
# (571) 339 4400 Ext 1594
Research Assistant
[email protected]
# (511) 416 3333 Ext 37946
International Sales & Trading
[email protected]
# (562) 2450 1613
Sales & Trading
[email protected]
# (511) 313 2918 Ext 32922
International Sales & Trading
[email protected]
# (571) 339 4400 Ext 1344
Tomás Sanhueza
Carlos E. Rodriguez
Analyst: Food & Beverages, Healthcare
[email protected]
# (562) 2446 1751
Analyst: GEA & infrastructure
[email protected]
# (571) 339 4400 Ext 1365
Pilar González
FIXED INCOME SALES & TRADING
Analyst: Transport
[email protected]
# (562) 2446 1768
Felipe García
Lourdes Alamos
Head of Fixed Income
[email protected]
Research Coordinator & Holdings Analyst
[email protected]
# (562) 2450 1609
FIXED INCOME & ECONOMICS RESEARCH
CHILE
COLOMBIA
PERU
Gonzalo Covarrubias
Carlos Sanchez
Alfredo Bejar
Head of Capital Markets
[email protected]
Head of Fixed Income
[email protected]redicorpcapital.com
Head of Fixed Income / FX Trading
[email protected]
CHILE
COLOMBIA
PERU
# (562) 2450 1635
# (571) 323 9154
# (511) 205 9190 Ext 36148
Paulina Yazigi
Daniel Velandia
Irvin León
Guido Riquelme
Christian Jarrin
Vallerie Yong
Head of Research & Chief Economist
[email protected]
# (562) 2450 1637
Head of Research & Chief Economist
[email protected]
# (571) 339 4400 Ext 1505
Senior Fixed Income Analyst
[email protected]
# (511) 416 3333 Ext 37854
Head of Sales
[email protected]
# (562) 2446 1712
RM Fixed Income Offshore
[email protected]
# (571) 340 2591
Local FI Senior Trader
[email protected]
# (511) 313 2902 - # (511) 313 2908
Felipe Lubiano
Sergio Ferro
Alberto Zapata
Belén Larraín
Andrés Valderrama
Evangeline Arapoglou
Senior Fixed Income Analyst
[email protected]
# (562) 2651 9308
Fixed Income Analyst
[email protected]
# (571) 339 4400 Ext 1609
Fixed Income Analyst
[email protected]
# (511) 205 9190 Ext 36018
Head of International FI Sales
[email protected]
# (562) 2446 1720
Fixed Income Trader
[email protected]
# (571) 323 9163
Senior International FI Trader
[email protected]
# (511) 313 2902 - # (511) 313 2908
Paulina Valdivieso
Camilo A. Durán
Paz Stepke
José Andrés Riveros
Lizeth Espíritu
Fixed Income Analyst
[email protected]
# (562) 2651 9337
Macro Analyst
[email protected]
# (5511) 339 4400 Ext. 1383
International Fixed Income Sales
[email protected]
# (562) 2651 9336
Fixed Income Trader
[email protected]
# (571) 339 4400 Ext 1180
Fixed Income Trader
[email protected]
# (511) 313 2902 - # (511) 313 2908
Andrés Osorio
Benjamín Diaz
Economist
[email protected]
# (562) 2446 1760
Local Fixed Income Sales
[email protected]
# (562) 2446 1738
4