Europe and Nuclear: about public confidence

IEEJ: November 2013 All Right Reserved
Europe and Nuclear:
about public confidence
Jean-Pol PONCELET
The Institute of Energy Economics
Tokyo, Japan, 5 November 2013
IEEJ: November 2013 All Right Reserved
Food for Thoughts...
o what is at stake?
tell an attractive story: nuclear yesterday, today and
tomorrow in people's life
o (re)gaining trust: some challenges ahead

utilities, investors: EU Energy policy; a sound market
organization

the media, the public: how safe is safe enough? the
back-end
the decision-makers: governments, regulators, thirdparty advocates

o wrapping up with questions...
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IEEJ: November 2013 All Right Reserved
A Storyline
It all started with Science and Physics...
1927
1911
SOLVAY International
Conferences, Brussels, Belgium
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IEEJ: November 2013 All Right Reserved
A Storyline
...it went on with the support of Technology...
The Nobel Prize in Physics
2013
François Englert, Peter Higgs
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A Storyline
...it flew to outer space...
Cassini-Huyghens
(NASA/ESA/ASI)
Pu238-powered
to Titan,
Saturn's largest moon
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IEEJ: November 2013 All Right Reserved
A Storyline
...it supports diagnosis and therapy...
99mTc
used by 10,000 hospitals
40 M procedures annually
HFR, Petten (NL)
BR2, Mol (B)
OSIRIS, Saclay (F)
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IEEJ: November 2013 All Right Reserved
A Storyline
...but
also divides
Europe
...itit powers
Europe
EU-28
131 Operating Reactors
4 Under Construction
28 % EU Power
2/3 EU Low-Carbon Electricity
0 Severe Accident
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A Storyline
800+ companies
900,000 jobs
70 x 109 €/y
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IEEJ: November 2013 All Right Reserved
EU's 2050 Energy Roadmap
COM(2011) 885 final, 15/12/2011
•
80-95 % economy-wide GHG emission reduction by 2050 (vs. 1990)
•
structural changes ahead: increased reliance on electricity,
renewables, gas, nuclear ("a key source of low carbon electricity
generation"); investments, costs; market structure
•
nuclear ranges from 2.5% (“Low Nuclear”) to 19% (“Delayed CCS”)
•
the low end:
units phased out at the end of their lifetime
no replacement
completing 4 units under construction (FI, FR, SK)
•
the high end:
about 140 GWe of nuclear capacity (100 new units) by 2050
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IEEJ: November 2013 All Right Reserved
High Nuclear in 2050 and the global economy
[internal analysis - 20% nuclear power share]
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IEEJ: November 2013 All Right Reserved
10 CEOs: "Rebuild Europe's Energy Policy"
Magritte Club, Brussels, October 2013
FAILURE of competitiveness: energy bills up +17-21 % in 4 years
FAILURE of security of supply: 51 GW capacity mothballed (= B, CZ, P)
FAILURE of climate change: CO2 emissions +2,4 % (2011-2012)
put EU Policy back on track by:
fostering the integration of mature renewables
into the regular market
giving priority
to the utilization of existing competitive power capacity
rather than subsidizing new constructions
strenghtening fundamentally
the European carbon market
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IEEJ: November 2013 All Right Reserved
Financial Markets: skeptical
source: P. Hatherton,
EURELECTRIC, Feb 2012
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EU: "the days after..."
Are you in favour of nuclear power?
(Europe)
source: BVA Opinion, April 2012
Yes
Before Fukushima
After Fukushima
43%
38%
No
Don't know
51%
56%
6%
6%
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IEEJ: November 2013 All Right Reserved
The Public: How Safe is Safe Enough?
•
before March 2011:
56 % of EU citizens wanting nuclear energy to be maintained or
increased [Eurobarometer on Nuclear Safety, April 2010]
•
in the UK, the Netherlands, Spain, Switzerland and
France, after a dip just after the accident, public
acceptance of nuclear has recovered
UK: Support for
Nuclear New
Build
source: Ipsos MORI, 2012
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UK: how did they manage it?
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IEEJ: November 2013 All Right Reserved
EU: Nuclear Safety Directive
•
Council Directive (25 June 2009): a Community Framework for
the nuclear safety of nuclear installations [2009/71/EURATOM]
•
13 June 2013: EC’s proposal for a revised Directive (incl. lessons
from the "stress-tests" process)
•
•
17 October 2013: final proposal, EP and Council to decide
issues of concern:
too early
inconsistency of definitions (vs. IAEA)
too many detailed prescriptions
technical and legal questions to carefully address
peer review are powerful and should be kept, but…
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IEEJ: November 2013 All Right Reserved
EU: reviewing Third Party Liability?
•
•
severe accident (INES 6-7): never a single example in the EU
Paris (1960) and Vienna (1963) Conventions: all of the EU MS
operating NPPs adhere to either the one or the other
ensuring that victims can claim and obtain compensation
ensuring that nuclear energy can continue to be used, defining a minimum limit of
operator's liability
•
strict liability: not to prove fault or negligence
channelled liability: exclusively the operator's
limited liability: in time and in amount, backed by insurance or
financial security ensuring the full amounts are available
•
= a sound set of principles:
robust regulatory regime, continuous improvement by operators
availability of adequate compensation for victims
firm foundation for investments, strong contribution to security of supply
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EU: the Back End
Member States’ responsibility:
“MS shall establish and maintain a
national legislative, regulatory
and organisational framework”
“MS shall ensure that…”
• regulatory authority
• financial resources
• transparency
• reporting:
Aug 23, 2015 for the first time, thereafter
every 3 years
“It is broadly accepted, at the
technical level that, at this time,
deep geological disposal
represents the safest and most
suitable option as the end point
of the management of high-level
waste and spent fuel considered
as waste.”
Directive 2011/70/EURATOM, (in the whereas…23rd)
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Wrapping up with Questions…

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

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are we serious about mitigating climate change?
are we worried about energy poverty?
how competitive do we want the EU to be in the 21st century?
how secure do we want our energy supply to be?
are investment frameworks favourable?
are governments -and will they stay-, committed?
how does the public regards the technology, how mature is it?
how reliable is the operation of nuclear power plants?
can serious accidents be avoided, or their consequences mitigated?
is industry capable of building new reactors to time and budget?
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IEEJ: November 2013 All Right Reserved
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