Ringkasan Harian Pasar Finansial

Ringkasan Harian Pasar Finansial
Thursday, February 05, 2015
Ringkasan Utama

Snapshot Global: Sentimen global terasa agak statis dibanding hari
sebelumnya dengan adanya kabar dari ECB bahwa mereka tidak akan
menerima surat utang Yunani sebagai collateral pinjaman. Sementara itu,
data ADP dari AS di bulan Januari menunjukkan penciptaan lapangan
kerja sebesar 213rb, di bawah ekspektasi pasar. Selain itu, pasar juga
akan cenderung fokus kepada adanya penurunan reserve requirement
ratio atau RRR dari bank sentral China, yang dijangka akan
menambahkan likuiditas sebesar CNY500bn ke pasar.

Indonesia: Data PDB Indonesia untuk kuartal ke-4 tahun lalu akan
diumumkan hari ini, di mana kami mengantisipasi angka 5,1% yoy untuk
data Q4 maupun 2014 secara menyeluruh. Dibandingkan tahun
sebelumnya, di mana PDB bertumbuh 5,8% di 2013, hal ini memang
menunjukkan penurunan tingkat pertumbuhan ekonomi. Namun,
kedepannya, kami menganggap bahwa ekonomi Indonesia dapat
mencapai pertumbuhan 5,4% dengan adanya pembaikan aktivitas
investasi dan konstruksi.
OCBC NISP
Treasury Advisory
Jakarta
021-25547288 / 252 / 255
Bandung
022-7159888
Surabaya
031-5358385 / 87
Medan
061-4518328
061-4518330
061-4552356
OCBC Treasury
Research & Strategy
OCBC Bank, Singapore
Wellian Wiranto
+65 6530-5949
WellianWiranto@ocbc.com
Analisa Sekilas

FX: EUR menglemah kembali terhadap USD setelah adanya kabar bahwa
ECB tidak akan menerima surat utang Yunani sebagai collateral.
Sementara itu, AUD bertahan di level yang sama setelah adanya data
retail sales yang lumayan mendukung.
Financial Market Indicators (Indonesia)
Nilai Mata Uang
USD-IDR
12630
EUR-IDR
14473,14
GBP-IDR
19149,42
JPY-IDR
107,64
AUD-IDR
9865,48
CAD-IDR
10167,01
SGD-IDR
9390,30
MYR-IDR
3545,34
JIBOR (Rupiah)
Tenor Suku Bunga (%)
O/N
5,85
1 Minggu
5,96
1 Bulan
6,50
3 Bulan
7,10
6 Bulan
8,00
12 Bulan
8,17
EUR-USD
GBP-USD
USD-JPY
AUD-USD
NZD-USD
USD-CAD
USD-CHF
USD-NOK
1,1345
1,5182
117,28
0,7753
0,7368
1,2574
0,9263
7,6022
Bursa Saham dan Komoditas
Index
Nilai Indeks/Harga
Nett
DJIA
17673,02
6,62
Nasdaq
4716,70
-11,03
Nikkei 225
17678,74
342,89
STI
3417,57
9,55
KLCI
1803,02
21,76
JCI
5315,28
23,57
Baltic Dry
569,00
-8,00
Obligasi Pemerintah (Govt Bonds)
Tenor
Imbal Hasil (%)
1Y
6,48
2Y
6,75
5Y
6,91
10Y
7,10
15Y
7,28
20Y
7,29
For reference only. Source: Bloomberg, OCBC Bank
5 February 2015
Ringkasan Harian Pasar Finansial
FX Sentiment Index
3.5
3.0
2.5
RISK OFF
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
RISK ON
-1.5
4-Oct-14
4-Apr-14
4-Oct-13
4-Apr-13
4-Oct-12
4-Apr-12
4-Oct-11
4-Apr-11
4-Oct-10
4-Apr-10
4-Oct-09
4-Apr-09
4-Oct-08
4-Apr-08
4-Oct-07
4-Apr-07
4-Oct-06
4-Apr-06
4-Oct-05
-2.0
Source: OCBC Bank
FX performance: 1-month change agst USD
10.0
%
5.0
0.0
-5.0
RUB
TRY
CAD
EUR
SEK
NZD
AUD
HUF
PLN
CLP
BRL
ARS
SGD
MYR
CNY
IDR
GBP
NOK
THB
MXN
COP
TWD
JPY
PHP
ZAR
INR
KRW
-15.0
CHF
-10.0
Source: Bloomberg
Treasury Research & Strategy
2
5 February 2015
Ringkasan Harian Pasar Finansial
Key Economic Indicators
Date
04/02/2015 04:22
04/02/2015 05:00
04/02/2015 05:45
04/02/2015 05:45
04/02/2015 05:45
04/02/2015 09:30
04/02/2015 09:35
04/02/2015 09:35
04/02/2015 09:45
04/02/2015 09:45
04/02/2015 10:30
04/02/2015 13:00
04/02/2015 13:00
04/02/2015 16:00
04/02/2015 16:45
04/02/2015 16:45
04/02/2015 16:50
04/02/2015 16:50
04/02/2015 16:55
04/02/2015 16:55
04/02/2015 17:00
04/02/2015 17:00
04/02/2015 17:30
04/02/2015 17:30
04/02/2015 18:00
04/02/2015 18:00
04/02/2015 20:00
04/02/2015 21:15
04/02/2015 22:45
04/02/2015 22:45
04/02/2015 23:00
US
SK
NZ
NZ
NZ
JN
JN
JN
CH
CH
HK
IN
IN
SI
IT
IT
FR
FR
GE
GE
EC
EC
UK
UK
EC
EC
US
US
US
US
US
Event
Wards Total Vehicle Sales
Foreign Reserves
Unemployment Rate
Employment Change QoQ
Employment Change YoY
Labor Cash Earnings YoY
Markit Japan Services PMI
Markit/JMMA Japan Composite PMI
HSBC China Composite PMI
HSBC China Services PMI
HSBC Hong Kong PMI
HSBC India Services PMI
HSBC India Composite PMI
Automobile COE Open Bid Cat A
Markit/ADACI Italy Services PMI
Markit/ADACI Italy Composite PMI
Markit France Services PMI
Markit France Composite PMI
Markit Germany Services PMI
Markit/BME Germany Cpste PMI
Markit Eurozone Services PMI
Markit Eurozone Composite PMI
Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI
Markit/CIPS UK Composite PMI
Retail Sales MoM
Retail Sales YoY
MBA Mortgage Applications
ADP Employment Change
Markit US Composite PMI
Markit US Services PMI
ISM Non-Manf. Composite
Jan
Jan
4Q
4Q
4Q
Dec
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Feb-04
Jan
Jan
Jan F
Jan F
Jan F
Jan F
Jan F
Jan F
Jan
Jan
Dec
Dec
Jan-30
Jan
Jan F
Jan F
Jan
Survey
16.60M
-5.30%
0.80%
3.00%
1.60%
--------50
50.1
49.5
49.5
52.7
52.6
52.3
52.2
56.3
55.5
0.00%
2.00%
-223K
-54.1
56.4
Actual
16.56M
$362.19B
5.70%
1.20%
3.50%
1.60%
51.3
51.7
51
51.8
49.4
52.4
53.3
62002
51.2
51.2
49.4
49.3
54
53.5
52.7
52.6
57.2
56.7
0.30%
2.80%
1.30%
213K
54.4
54.2
56.7
Prior
16.80M
$363.59B
5.40%
0.80%
3.20%
-1.50%
51.7
51.9
51.4
53.4
50.3
51.1
52.9
65001
49.4
49.4
49.5
49.5
52.7
52.6
52.3
52.2
55.8
55.2
0.60%
1.50%
-3.20%
241K
54.2
54
56.2
Revised
---0.90%
-0.10%
-----------------55.3
0.70%
1.60%
-253K
--56.5
05/02/2015 07:50
05/02/2015 08:00
05/02/2015 08:30
05/02/2015 08:30
05/02/2015 09:00
05/02/2015 09:00
05/02/2015 11:00
05/02/2015 11:00
05/02/2015 11:30
05/02/2015 12:00
05/02/2015 12:00
05/02/2015 15:00
05/02/2015 15:00
05/02/2015 16:00
05/02/2015 16:00
05/02/2015 16:20
05/02/2015 16:30
05/02/2015 17:10
05/02/2015 17:10
05/02/2015 17:10
05/02/2015 17:10
05/02/2015 20:00
05/02/2015 20:00
05/02/2015 21:30
05/02/2015 21:30
05/02/2015 21:30
05/02/2015 21:30
05/02/2015 22:45
JN
AU
TA
AU
PH
PH
ID
ID
TH
MA
MA
GE
GE
UK
UK
TA
GE
GE
EC
FR
IT
UK
UK
CA
US
US
US
US
Foreign Buying Japan Stocks
HIA New Home Sales MoM
CPI YoY
Retail Sales MoM
CPI YoY
CPI NSA MoM
GDP YoY
GDP QoQ
Consumer Confidence Economic
Exports YoY
Trade Balance MYR
Factory Orders MoM
Factory Orders WDA YoY
Halifax House Prices MoM
Halifax House Price 3Mths/Year
Foreign Reserves
Markit Germany Construction PMI
Markit Germany Retail PMI
Markit Eurozone Retail PMI
Markit France Retail PMI
Markit Italy Retail PMI
BOE Asset Purchase Target
Bank of England Bank Rate
Int'l Merchandise Trade
Initial Jobless Claims
Continuing Claims
Trade Balance
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort
Jan-30
Dec
Jan
Dec
Jan
Jan
4Q
4Q
Jan
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Feb
Feb-05
Dec
Jan-31
Jan-24
Dec
Feb-01
--0.30%
0.30%
2.30%
0.00%
4.90%
-1.48%
-1.00%
9.00B
1.50%
0.70%
0.00%
7.70%
------375B
0.50%
-1.10B
290K
2400K
-$38.0B
--
-¥104.8B
----------------------------
¥466.9B
2.20%
0.61%
0.10%
2.70%
-0.20%
5.01%
2.96%
70.5
2.10%
11.13B
-2.40%
-0.40%
0.90%
7.80%
$418.98B
50.5
51.7
47.6
46.5
42.8
375B
0.50%
-0.64B
265K
2385K
-$39.0B
47.3
¥464.8B
----------------------------
Source: Bloomberg
Treasury Research & Strategy
3
5 February 2015
Ringkasan Harian Pasar Finansial
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