LNG Projects on

IV International Conference
"Eastern Siberia and Russian Far East Oil and Gas"
17-18 April 2014, Moscow
Updating
Russian
Crude
Status
in
Japan
s
Rising LNG Projects Targeting Asia Pacific Market
Daiske HARADA, 原田大輔
Economist, Deputy Director
Russia Project Team, E&P Ventures
Energy Research Division, Research & Analysis Dept.
Japan Oil, Gas and Metals National Corporation
Increasing Flow from Russia to Asia Pacific
1
ESPO Crude: Keeping Steady Increase
2
ESPO Crude to Japan in detail
3
Composition of Russia Crude to Japan
Other ESPO Buyers
100%
kl
Others
10 000 000
90%
80%
Malaysia
Peru
8
India
70%
16
18
26
29
ESPO:
:68%
8 000 000
Indonesia
60%
Singapore
50%
29
27
15
40%
Philippine
11
Thailand
8
Taiwan
30%
13
10%
4 000 000
S-1:
:18%
China
20%
31
30
6 000 000
6
34
19
USA
Korea
2 000 000
Japan
0%
2010
2011
2012
S-2:
:14%
2013
0
306MBD→
306MBD
→304MBD
304MBD→
→326MBD
326MBD→
→420MBD
2005
2006
2007
S-2 Project
Source: JOGMEC, METI-Japan
2008
2009
2010
S-1 Project
2011
2012
ESPO
2013
Changes of Exporting Countries to Japan
Source: MOF-Japan
4
2012
2013
2012
2013
ESPO Crude: its advantage against Dubai
5
Shipping days: 3 to 5 days
Cost: 0.7 USD/BBL
No choke points
No Destination Clause
Shipping days: 20 days
Cost: from 1.4 USD/BBL
Choke points of Straits
Destination Clause
etc.
Japanese JV in East Siberia
In this September,
and
6
successfully firmed in those projects
In addition, we should remember..
Ural Blend:
Blend:103
103USD
USD
51USD
51
USD
Export Duty:
Duty:
52
52USD
USD
79USD
79USD
East Siberia:
Siberia:24USD
7
Before Earthquake and Fukushima
8
Outlook of Primary Energy Supply in Japan published in 2010
MMklOE
Renewable:
3%
3%8%
Hydro: 3%
3%4%
Nuclear:
12%21%
Natural Gas:
15%
15%
14%
Coal: 21%
21%18%
LPG: 3%
3%3%
Oil: 43%
43%33
33%
%
Source: METI, Japan
Nuclear Circumstances in Japan
9
World Top Nuclear Countries
At present,
Exist 54 reactors
0 in operation
54 under inspection
North American
Plate
Eurasian Plate
Pacific
Plate
Philippine Sea
Plate
Source: METI, Japan
Japan’s Electricity Supply by Source
Options in Discussion
10
‘Options for Energy & Environment’ June 2012
Economic
Impact
Public Trend &
Opinion
Lobbing by
Business side
Politics
‘Prototype Alternatives for Energy Mix toward 2030’
Nuclear
Renewables
Fossil Fuel
Option A
0%
35%
50%
Option B
15%
30%
40%
Option C
20-25%
20-25%
35%
Option D
Cogeneration
Energy
Conservation
CO2
Emissions
-16%
15%
-10 to -20%
-20%
-23%
Achieving the most desirable generation mix for society by the choice of power consumers in the
market after setting up a framework for sharing the social cost by utilities.
Approved New ‘Basic Energy Plan’
11
Japanese Government approved longlong-waited New ‘Basic Energy
Plan’ on 11th April, 2014, took three years after the earthquake.
Focal Points
Nuclear as important base load power
power,, which contributes to the
stability for energy supply and demand structure.
To promote resumption of nuclear power plants,
plants, which are
qualified and fitted with the strictest standards in the world
stipulated by the Nuclear Regulation Authority.
Dependence upon nuclear should be decreased by promoting
renewable energy and efficiency of thermal power stations as
much as possible.
Trade Status of Crude Oil & LNG
Highest Price Hike
before
Lehman Shock
12
Billion t
Billion yen
Earthquake
Crude Oil Import by volume
MMt
Crude Oil Import by cost
Billion yen
LNG Import by volume
Source: MOF, Japan
LNG Import by cost
Changes Electricity Mix by LNG
Change of Electricity Supply
by Source
Constant Increase of LNG Import
Drastic change after Earthquake
MMt
2010FY
2012FY
Source: MOF, Japan, and The Federation of Electric Power Companies of Japan
13
Price Divergence and its impact
Gas Price Divergence started from 2008
Suffering Japanese Utility Companies
14
Nuclear Power
Total 472.28MMkW
98% shut down
[email protected]
Nuclear dependence suffer
Total 1.5 trillion yen loss
Russia as a Reasonable Supplier
1000yen/ton
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
15
2012
2013
Average
USD/MMBTU
USA
36.2
36.7
41.3
40.7
55.5
54.2
65.9
-
47.2
10.29
Oman
53.2
48.8
65.4
33.6
32.3
39.5
48.9
57.3
47.4
10.32
-
-
-
32.1
38.3
52.7
59.5
71.5
50.8
11.07
Australia
38.8
42.0
61.4
42.9
52.2
61.2
65.6
75.6
55.0
11.97
UAE
40.7
43.6
60.6
43.3
52.8
63.3
71.7
85.0
57.6
12.55
Brunei
35.2
38.4
69.3
50.3
52.7
63.1
72.9
84.0
58.2
12.69
Indonesia
48.7
51.4
62.2
36.3
42.7
62.2
75.1
87.8
58.3
12.70
Malaysia
39.1
47.2
68.2
46.0
53.7
64.1
73.6
86.6
59.8
13.03
Trinidad Tobago
69.2
63.8
86.6
46.5
45.6
42.7
52.6
80.3
60.9
13.27
-
-
-
-
36.0
60.0
68.1
83.9
62.0
13.51
Qatar
45.8
49.5
71.7
53.0
56.4
64.6
71.8
84.6
62.2
13.54
Brazil
-
-
-
-
-
-
63.9
-
63.9
13.92
Nigeria
72.9
63.9
91.7
56.0
38.1
54.8
66.9
81.4
65.7
14.31
Algeria
60.8
61.6
94.8
-
34.3
58.5
70.6
79.9
65.8
14.33
Peru
-
-
-
-
-
57.2
68.1
86.6
70.6
15.38
Equator Guinea
-
58.9
87.9
56.9
58.4
71.2
75.4
87.7
70.9
15.45
67.4
66.3
87.3
87.6
60.1
65.0
72.8
83.2
73.7
16.06
Belgium
-
-
-
-
-
-
74.1
-
74.1
16.14
Norway
-
-
94.6
-
-
54.1
64.8
87.8
75.3
16.41
Spain
-
-
-
-
-
-
69.2
83.7
76.5
16.65
France
-
-
-
-
-
-
71.7
86.1
78.9
17.18
Angola
Source: MOF-Japan
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
84.4
84.4
18.38
Russia
Yemen
Egypt
*Conversion factor: 1USD=96.99yen, 1.09t=51.7MMBTU
Russia as active player but in haste
Projects
Stakeholders
Sakhalin-2,
Sakhalin3rd Train
Supply source
Luni
Pil’tun-Astokh
Kirinsky (S
(S--3)
Vladivostok
LNG
Reserves
17.7TCF
Start
Present
9.6MMt
+5MMt
2018 possibly
15MMt
5MMt
26.3TCF
42.4TCF
(ABC1+C2)
Sakhalin
LNG
Odoptu
Chaivo
Arkutun-Dagi
17.1TCF
2018 possibly
Yamal
LNG
YuzhnoTambeyskoye
24.6TCF
2016~2018
Shtokmanovskoye
137.7TCF
-
Shtokman
LNG
(ABC1)
Baltic
LNG
Pechora
LNG
Capacity
2009
2016 possibly
Relatively faster and more viable
(ABC1+C2)
Chayandinskoye
16
West Siberia
Yamal Peninsula
Kumzhinskoye
CH Invest JSC
EuroNorthOil LLC
-
(5.5+5.5+5.5)
7.5MMt
-
10MMt
2018
3MMt
3.4TCF
(ABC1+C2)
Korovinskoye
*2019以降開発
16.5MMt
1.5TCF
(ABC1+C2)
Russian LNG Projects & NSR
17
LNG Projects on ‘Waiting list’
18
Country
Expected Timing
Possible Volume
Australia
2015 to 2017
32.9MMt
Indonesia
2014 to 2015
2.0MMt
Papua New Guinea
2014 to 2015
11.6MMt
From 2015
72.0MMt
2014 to 2017
29.0MMt
From 2018
29.0MMt
USA
Canada
East Africa
TOTAL
176.5MMt
LNG Vectors at present
19
LNG Vectors in the future
20
Ukraine factor would enhance Eastern Vector
World Demand Forecast for Natural Gas
BCM
BCM
21
Rushing PL Projects to West & East
BCM
2008
EU Demand
2011
555
Nord
2012
+19
+27.5
2015
2017
2017--
2020
2025
574
+34
608
636
+8
+23
+27.5
South
+63
Nabucco
ITGI
+12
TAP
+20
TANAP
GALSI
+8
Supply Capacity
+55
+91
Excess Capacity
Asian Demand
SKV
2008
399
OR
2011
2012
+214
+6
Source: IEA Report, “Golden Age of Gas Scenario” 2011
+83
163
To East
2015
2017
2017--
2020
613
+120
733
+24
2025
853
+17.2 (SKV+YKV=47.2)
YKV: from 2016
YKV
Altai
+36
107
To West
BCM
~60
+16
+30
Conclusions and Summary
22
After completion of ESPO
ESPO--2 pipeline, Russia’s capacity to supply crude oil will
double in three years, and it will gain possible 10% share in the Japanese market
in the near future, which may result in positive effects on Japan’s energy
security..
security
Russia is the most appropriate additional crude oil supplier to Japan due to its
proximity, safety and flexibility, and will help Japan gain a stronger position in
relation to its traditional Middle Eastern and African oil suppliers, while Russia
has reduced tax revenue instead.
After the earthquake in March 2011, Japan shifted power generation from nuclear
to LNG, which pushed LNG imports up 25% in two years. However, in 2014,
China and Russia’s possible decision to start trading pipeline gas after Ukraine
situation, and Japan’s decision to resume nuclear, leads to more limited demand
capacity for LNG in this region.
Who will take the rest LNG demand, depends upon the severe competition.
Russian LNG projects may have possibility to provide new standards, especially
in price, for AsianAsian-Pacific market.
Thank you for your attention
s
Q&A
E-mail:
[email protected]
harada
TEL:
TEL:
URL:
+81+81-3-67586758-8109
http://www.jogmec.go.jp
http
://www.jogmec.go.jp
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