The Role of Expectations on the Effectiveness of Active Labor

Wir laden Sie herzlich zur nächsten Veranstaltung des Potsdam Research Seminar in Economics
am 08.11.2016 ein.
Das Seminar findet von 14.00 bis 16.00 Uhr (c.t.) in Raum 3.06.S 27 statt.
Robert Mahlstedt
IZA Bonn
Thema des Vortrages:
The Role of Expectations on the Effectiveness of Active Labor Market Policies
The study investigates the impact of job seekers pre-treatment expectations on the effectiveness of
training programs. Using German survey data on individuals freshly entering unemployment, it is shown
empirically that participants who are not aware of the prospective treatment face substantially lower
long-run employment rates compared to their participating counterparts expecting the treatment ex
ante. While the empirical analysis shows that neither observed characteristics, nor unobserved ability
differences, nor differences with respect to expected treatment effects can sufficiently explain the
finding, it is in line with a job search model which incorporates the fact that misjudging future
participation probabilities could encourage unemployed workers to choose search strategies that
provoke high adjustment costs once the true treatment status has been realized. Further analysis of
search strategies shows that job seekers who do not expect a treatment also receive less support of the
caseworker during job search and show a lower willingness to adjust their search behavior during the
treatment. The results imply that caseworkers could improve the labor market performance of
participants by providing better information to unemployed workers about potential future treatments
directly at entry into unemployment.
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